“Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." --Mark Twain
Like most boys, I collected baseball cards. My favorite part was reading the statistics on the back of the cards; I could recite by memory that Will Clark hit 35 homes in 1987, Vince Coleman stole 110 bases in 1985 and Tim Raines led all N.L. hitters in average at .334 in 1986. Sad, I know.
Millions of baseball fans like myself have a lifelong fascination with statistics -- something that would have likely annoyed Twain -- dating back to the sport’s early days in the mid-19th century. (Check out “The Numbers Game” by Alan Schwarz for an outstanding historical evolution on this topic). Today, sabermetrics has enhanced the bond between baseball and numbers -- much to the chagrin of
old-school baseball minds -- and baseball agents like Scott Boras are forever grateful for the seemingly endless supply of statistics to support his clients in free agency and arbitration hearings.
As for the 2009 St. Louis Cardinals, two glaring statistics are weighing on the minds of fans: 1) The Redbirds have scored 3 or less runs in 23 of the their past 38 games (including Tuesday's night 7-2 loss to Cincy) and 2) Ryan Franklin’s last 1-2-3 inning came Aug. 19 (blowing 3 of 11 save opportunities since that date). These two areas are of serious concern as the team prepares for the postseason, which starts next Wednesday. (A first-round playoff preview is coming in this corner of cyberspace next Wednesday.)
In the meantime, many Cardinals are closing in on statistical milestones in the final week of the regular season. Achieving these marks will depend on playing time as the skipper will likely try to work in some rest for key players. Still, let’s examine what is on the table for:
Albert Pujols -- Where do you start? Well, let’s start the assists where Pujols set the N.L. record for assists (181) by a first basemen on Sunday in Colorado. With six games remaining entering Tuesday night’s game in Cincinnati, Pujols is nearing Bill Buckner’s MLB-record 184 assists set in 1985.
On the offensive side, Pujols leads all MLB hitters with 47 homers (3 ahead of Arizona's Mark Reynolds) and is just two shy of tying his career-high in bombs (I’m rooting for his first 50-homer campaign.). He trails RBI co-leaders Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder in RBI (137 to 132). Even if El Hombre finishes the season as the leader in both categories, the dream of the National League’s first Triple Crown winner since 1937 will have to wait another season. Florida’s Hanley Ramirez appears ready to claim the batting crown with a sizeable lead over Pujols.
Pujols also leads baseball in OPS (1.115), runs (121), extra-base hits (91) and walks (112). At this point, Pujols is just padding his MVP season.
Ryan Ludwick -- Ludwick is aiming for his second straight 100 RBI season. He entered Tuesday’s game just 8 shy of that mark. He has hit just .150 against Cincinnati this season, but he has enjoyed success against Milwaukee pitching (.353 in 34 at-bats) in 2009. Hopefully Ludwick will not suffer the same fate as Troy Glaus, who finished with 99 RBI in 2008. Another reason to root for Luddy: If he can enter the postseason on a roll, it could make a big difference in what has been a lukewarm Cardinals’ lineup this month.
Matt Holliday -- Scott Boras’s top client this winter can put the finishing touches on what has been one of Holliday's finest seasons. One interesting item: Holliday has yet to commit an error in 56 games in St. Louis. He also does not have an outfield assist to his credit since coming to town.
Skip Schumaker -- Jared Michael Schumaker is hitting .303, and he could have a third straight .300 season to his credit (second as a starter). Most of his damage has come against righthanders where he’s hitting .324. Schumaker could also exceed his personal highs in runs (87) and hits (163). Not bad for a guy who is still learning a new position and more than holding his own.
Adam Wainwright -- His final chance to win 20 games -- unless he gets an unexpected relief appearance -- comes Friday night at home against Milwaukee. You have to like his odds. Against the Brewers, he owns a 3-1 record with a 0.59 ERA in 4 starts; at home, Wainwright sports a 1.93 ERA in 17 starts at Busch Stadium. In the ultra-tight Cy Young race, a 20-win season might be too much for voters to ignore, especially if Wainwright is the only major league pitcher to achieve the milestone this season.
Chris Carpenter -- The N.L. leader in ERA (2.30) makes his final start on Thursday afternoon in Cincinnati. His closest competitor in the ERA title happens to be fellow Cy Young contender Tim Lincecum (2.47), who makes his final outing on Thursday
night at home against Arizona. Carpenter should set a career-best in ERA and further strengthen his Cy Young candidacy.
Ryan Franklin -- Franklin is two saves shy of 40, which would be a remarkable accomplishment for a reliever who entered ‘08 with just 18 career saves. He could also become the first Cardinal to reach the 40-save plateau since Jason Isringhausen reached 47 in 2004. Fun fact: Franklin could become only the second Redbird reliever to reach at least 40 saves since 1994. Franklin trails Heath Bell (40) and Francisco Cordero (39) for the N.L. lead in saves, and considering his recent struggles, it would be surprising if Franklin wraps up the regular season as the N.L. saves leader.
Yadier Molina -- The National League's toughest hitter to strike out sits at 6 homers and 52 RBI, which puts him just 1 homer and 4 RBI shy to tying his career bests achieved last season. Yadi has already set personal bests in hits, total bases, runs and a remarkable 9 stolen bases.
Closing Thoughts
1) It would be nice for the Cards to have the top seed and guaranteed home-field advantage, but as history shows us, it is all about matchups and momentum -- not seeding and home-field -- in the postseason. Frankly, if Atlanta somehow wrestles the Wild Card from Colorado, would you want to be the top-seeded N.L. playoff team? The Braves have 16 of the past 19 games going into Tuesday night and have a loaded starting staff. Even if the Rockies reach the playoffs, they will be a tough matchup and have plenty of momentum behind him.
Frankly, I'm fine with the Cards finishing second or third and playing the Phillies or the Dodgers in the division series -- even if they have to start on the road.
2) John Smoltz deserves to be the fourth starter in the playoffs. Kyle Lohse is 2-4 with a 5.54 ERA in 11 outings since the All-Star Break. It has been a lost season for Lohse, who has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness. On the flip side, Smoltz has pitched reasonably well since coming from Boston, sporting a 3.18 ERA in six starts. Each pitcher will receive one more start this week, but I think Smoltz will get the ball in Game 4 of the NLDS (if necessary).
3) If I were to set the postseason pitching roster, I would include the following:
STARTERS: Carpenter, Wainwright, Pineiro and Smoltz
BULLPEN: Franklin, Motte, McClellan, Hawksworth, Miller, Reyes and Lohse
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN: Mitchell Boggs, Josh Kinney, Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer.
4) I'm not sure how far I want to take instant replay in baseball (we already have it for disputed home runs), but after Sunday's blunder in Colorado, it is hard to ignore the benefits of expanding the use of this technology in the game.
Stream of Consciousness
Will the Rams win a game this season? Seriously ... I heard Bob Costas on Bernie Miklasz's 101.1 ESPN show on Tuesday afternoon, and I like Costas's suggestion of expanding the division series to a best-of-seven format and limiting Wild Card teams just 2 home games in each of the first two rounds ... If you saw last week's episode of "The Office," you know that its writers are still on top of their games ... If Tony La Russa does not manage in St. Louis in 2010, you have to think that Jose Oquendo is the front-runner to take over ... That being said, I really hope La Russa and Dave Duncan return next season ... I read that U2 will be performing at several MLB stadiums next season. Will Busch Stadium be on the tour? ... I want to be excited about Mizzou football, but the Tigers have not beaten anyone yet. A win over Nebraska on Oct. 8 is imperative, because the following two games will be challenging (at Oklahoma State, home against Texas).
Thanks for reading.
Gabriel Kiley is a freelance sports writer based in St. Louis. Feel free to post your comments below or follow him on Twitter.