Missouri and Oklahoma State kick off in a matchup of two of the nation's top offenses on Saturday night. Here is our breakdown of the ball game:
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When Missouri runs the ball: The Cowboys are giving up 142 yards a game on the ground, which puts them right in the middle of the Big 12. However, it also puts them below Nebraska, whom the Tigers shredded a week ago. And a more telling stat is that Okie State is giving up 4.5 yards a carry. Only Iowa State, Kansas State and A&M have been worse. Those are probably the three worst teams in the Big 12. Derrick Washington is rolling. He had 139 on the ground last week and could have had 239 if the Tigers had felt like running more. Edge: Missouri
When Missouri throws the ball: The Tigers have the third best passing offense in America. We will simply save you time and tell you that we're going to give Missouri the advantage in this one all year long. By the way, OSU has allowed a league high 11 touchdown passes, though opponents have completed only 51.8 percent of their throws. That will change this week. Edge: Missouri
When Oklahoma State runs the ball: Like with the Tigers throwing it, the Cowboys have the edge on just about everybody when they run it. Have they played the 2000 Baltimore Ravens yet? No. But still, 315 yards a game is impressive. Kendall Hunter leads the league and until last week Keith Toston was second. Don't discount the scrambling of Zac Robinson either. He is like a souped up version of Joe Ganz. Ganz was good enough to get outside of the pocket, but not really good enough to hurt the Tigers with his legs once he got there. Robinson is. Edge: Oklahoma State
When Oklahoma State throws the ball: Well, the Cowboys have attempted 30 fewer passes than anyone else in the Big 12. Sure, Robinson is rated highly for passing efficiency, but he doesn't throw it that much. The Pokes have thrown three interceptions in 93 passes. Missouri has thrown one in 183. Texas Tech has thrown four in 262 attempts. In other words, Robinson is turning it over at a higher rate than anyone in the league that doesn't play for Texas A&M. It's all or nothing. Dez Bryant averages more than 20 yards a catch. They can hit some big plays, but OSU is not a consistent passing threat. Of course, the Tigers haven't exactly been stalwarts against the pass either. Edge: Push
Special Teams: Bryant and Jeremy Maclin are a push. They're both phenomenal. And I don't expect either one to get a chance to make a game-changing return. Oklahoma State is slightly better in punting and kick coverage, Missouri a little better at placekicking. Edge: Push
Intangibles: The Cowboys have not been a real good road team of late (see last year's throttling at Troy). The Tigers have been a phenomenal home team. In addition, Mizzou will have a sellout crowd that should be absolutely bonkers. The Pokes biggest hope here is that Missouri is looking ahead to Texas. If OSU was 4-1 and unranked, that's possible. The Tigers aren't overlooking a team that is ranked in the nation's top 20. Missouri has won games like this before. Oklahoma State hasn't. Most around the Cowboy program are saying this is the biggest game of the Gundy era. Edge: Missouri
Bottom Line: Oklahoma State is good enough to win this game...especially if they get the ground game going early and jump out to a lead. However, the Cowboys are COMPLETELY untested. They have played less than no one. Texas A&M and Washington State are among the worst BCS conference teams in the country. Houston and Troy are probably actually the best teams the Pokes have played. They're jumping up to a whole other stratosphere here. Again, Missouri's been here before. They're used to big games. Oklahoma State, well, not so much. Again, if Missouri plays well, they win this game. A few mistakes could keep the Cowboys in it and OSU is the first team good enough to make the Tigers pay for it. I thought for weeks this would be the game that could trip the Tigers up. The more I look at it, the less I think that.
We'll go with a prediction of Missouri 51, Oklahoma State 31.
Gabe DeArmond is the publisher of PowerMizzou.com. You can read more of his coverage of the Tigers online at http://missouri.rivals.com.