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Each Thursday during the season, InsideSTL.com will break down the Tigers' upcoming game. This week, it's on the road to Reno for a Friday night game with the Nevada Wolfpack. We will break down each aspect of the game and offer up a prediction for the game.


Missouri offense vs Nevada defense

The Tiger offense has put up good numbers, but in each game it has been somewhat slow to get started. The Tigers scored four times in the first half against Illinois, but three were field goals. The first touchdown against Bowling Green didn't come until the final minute of the third quarter. Even against Furman, Missouri's first two drives ended in punts. The main culprit has been penalties, an average of six per game.


If Missouri can get going early, the Tigers could put up plenty of points. Nevada is allowing 35 points and 439.5 yards per game against teams with less offensive firepower than Mizzou. The Pack has allowed nearly a 70% completion rate and 261 yards a game through the air. Missouri's deep receiving corps could be a big factor. Blaine Gabbert has not thrown an interception in his first three college starts. Holding on to the ball will be a big factor in his first true road game. The Tigers would also like to get the run game going. While the statistics are decent, most of the damage has come in the second half this season.

Edge: Missouri


Missouri defense vs Nevada offense

The offense was thought to be the strength of the Wolfpack team coming into the season, but that hasn't been the case. Nevada was shut out by Notre Dame and then scored just 20 against Colorado State. The main culprits have been penalties and turnovers. Nevada has drawn 15 flags in two games and has turned the ball over a staggering eight times.


Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a good athlete who hurt Missouri at times on the ground last season. He has run for just 63 yards this season, but has the potential to be very gandgerous. Kaepernick's biggest problem has been holding on to the ball. He has thrown four interceptions in just 61 pass attempts this season.


Vai Tua leads the Nevada ground game, averaging 104.5 yards per game thus far. He's not a burner, but is averaging 6.5 yards per carry. The Tigers will have to control him to win the game. Former 1,000-yard rusher Luke Lippincott is back in the fold, but is being used sparingly. He has run for just 52 yards thus far. Tray Session is the Pack's top receiver, averaging six catches and 68.5 yards per game so far.


The Tiger defense has been much improved this season, holding each of its first three opponents under 400 yards. Mizzou has allowed fewer total points (41) through three games than it did in the opener (42) a season ago. Aldon and Jacquies Smith could give a Nevada line that has allowed three sacks through three games some trouble.


The biggest factor here is likely to be turnovers. The Tigers have forced four in their first three games, while the Pack has surrendered eight. If Nevada's going to win this game, they simply cannot give the ball away at that rate.

Edge: Push


Special Teams

Grant Ressel is nearing the point where no one wonders about him anymore. He has made every kick so far this season. Jake Harry has been one of the country's best punters. The Tigers have a change at kick returner this week. With Jasper Simmons battling a bruised knee, St. Louis native Munir Prince takes over that job. Prince had one solid return against Furman a week ago.


For the Wolfpack, Ricky Drake has not made a kick yet. He has missed his only field goal attempt and his only PAT. Brad Langley is doing a good job punting, averaging 42.6 yards per kick and putting four of his eight inside the opponent's 20. Mike Ball is a solid kick returner, averaging nearly 33 yards per return.

Edge: Missouri


Coaching

Gary Pinkel has guided his team to three straight wins and has won as many games as any coach in the country over the past two-plus years. This is his biggest challenge of the season, to keep the streak going on the road in front of a crowd that figures to be fairly rabid. Pinkel has passed every test so far this season.


Chris Ault coaches Nevada and is one of the most experienced coaches in the country. In his 25th season, only Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden have spent more time at one school. Ault ranks sixth among active coaches with 198 wins and 16th in winning percentage. Pinkel called him “one of the best coaches in college football history” earlier this week.

Edge: Push


Prediction

The game is on a Friday night, it is Nevada's home opener and the Pack is a desperate team. They will pull out every single stop to win this game. At the same time, Missouri won last year's contest by 52 points. Yes, it was at home and yes, the Tigers are a different team, but that's a pretty wide gap to close in a year. Expect the Pack to push Missouri, but the Tigers get started earlier this week and hang on late for a 31-23 Missouri win.


Gabe DeArmond is the publisher of PowerMizzou.com. You can read his daily coverage of the Tigers online at http://missouri.rivals.com.

Comments

thomas_praxis
# thomas_praxis
Friday, September 25, 2009 10:48 AM
I agree with Producer Joe and Tim... Tigers stay focused and cover -7.

Make an impression on the national media so we can break in the top 25... Don't care much about polls, but at least when you in the top 25 you have more news coverage.

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