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Breaking Down the Big 12 North
By Gabe DeArmond Tuesday, November 03, 2009

There has been a lot of talk that maybe Missouri (or any of the other five teams) should not WANT to win the Big 12 North. Well, let's get this out of the way first: OF COURSE you want to win it. No, it's not like winning Miss America (maybe more like Little Miss Randolph County), but it's the division you're in. You want to win it.

Let's take a quick look at the current standings:

Kansas State 3-2

Nebraska 2-2

Iowa State 2-3

Missouri 1-3

Kansas 1-3

Colorado 1-3

Now, here is each team's remaining schedule:

Kansas State: vs Kansas, vs Missouri, at Nebraska

Nebraska: vs Oklahoma, at Kansas, vs Kansas State, at Colorado

Iowa State: vs Oklahoma State, vs Colorado, at Missouri

Missouri: vs Baylor, at Kansas State, vs Iowa State, at Kansas (in Kansas City)

Kansas: at Kansas State, vs Nebraska, at Texas, vs Missouri (in Kansas City)

Colorado: vs Texas A&M, at Iowa State, at Oklahoma State, vs Nebraska

Now, I'm not going to waste my time trying to predict the outcome of games and final records. It's stupid. If anything has been proven in the Big 12 North this season, that should be it. Instead, I'm going to give you the path of how each team wins the North and then we'll break down the favorites.

Kansas State: The Cats have to win two of their final three games. If the beat Missouri and Nebraska, the Wildcats will win it. Period. They are one of two teams that actually controls their own destiny. If they win out, they obviously win it as well, but they don't have to win out. They can lose this week if they beat the Tigers and the Huskers.

Nebraska: The Huskers are the other team that controls its own destiny. This week's game against Oklahoma is meaningless. If the Huskers win their final three games, the worst they could do is a tie for the title and they'd have every tiebreaker, unless Iowa State found a way to win out (they won't).

Iowa State: The Clones have to win their final three games, or have to win two of the three (not very likely with OSU and Mizzou left) and then hope for a ton of help and a win in a muddled tiebreaker.

Missouri: The easiest path is for the Tigers to win out and have Nebraska lose twice. If that happens, Missouri wins it. If the Tigers drop any of their final three games, it's almost impossible for them to win the crown.

Kansas: Kansas has to win out. Theoretically, the Hawks also control their destiny because if they win out, they're 5-and-3 and along the way will have handed Nebraska, Kansas State and Missouri another loss. But with a trip to Austin on the docket, that's just not realistic.

Colorado: The Buffs better start praying. Technically, yes, if they win the last four games and Kansas State loses twice and Missouri loses once, the Buffs would win the division. Let's not deal in fantasy if we can avoid it.

So after looking at all that, here's the way we see the chances of each team. We'll go from the favorite to the longshots.

Missouri: Yes, it's ludicrous to call a 1-and-3 team that was in last place by itself a week ago the division favorite. But Missouri should be favored in AT LEAST three of its final four games. The defense is playing pretty well. The quarterback is getting healthy. Had Mizzou beaten Nebraska, they'd be the clear-cut favorite. Because they didn't, they need help from somewhere, but they're our favorite because...

Nebraska: The Huskers haven't really settled on a quarterback. They lost to Texas Tech badly. They lost to Iowa State. They scored 13 offensive points against Baylor and won that game only because the Bears missed a chip shot field goal and dropped an easy touchdown pass in the final ten minutes. Sure, the Huskers control their own destiny, but no one can really forecast them beating Kansas, Kansas State and Colorado right now with a straight face, can they?

Kansas State: The Cats are a nice story. Bill Snyder has done a commendable job. But KSU is 3-4 against Division One competition. They are probably going to be underdogs in each of their last three games. We can see the Cats winning one, maybe even two, but we can't see them running the table.

Iowa State: Is it likely they can beat Oklahoma State and Missouri? No. Is it possible? Why not? Nothing else makes sense in this division.

Kansas: Had the Hawks won at Colorado, they might be in the driver's seat. That loss will kill them. Even if KU sweeps the three North games left on its schedule, there's almost no way they're winning in Austin.

Colorado: I'm not going to waste my time typing a reason I think they can win it because there isn't one.


Gabe DeArmond is the publisher of PowerMizzou.com, the Missouri site on the Rivals.com network. You can read his daily coverage of the Tigers online at http://missouri.rivals.com.

Comments
By mrkid @ Wednesday, November 04, 2009 8:05 AM
The problem is, it's not really clear how good (or bad) any of these 6 teams are. One week, they look like top 25, the next week they look like Division II. A Mizzou win over Nebraska would have made them the clear favorite in my mind, but with that loss, I think the Huskers are going to end up with it, possibly by winning a tiebreaker over Mizzou when both end up with 5-3 conference records.

By psak21 @ Wednesday, November 04, 2009 11:31 AM
Good article Gabe. I couldn't agree more that the North is a huge cluster. One question around the Jayhawks. Couldn't they still win if the following happens:
Kansas- Beats KSU, Neb and Mizzou, but losses to Texas
Mizz- Only losses to KU
Neb- Losses to OU or KSU and KU
KSU- Losses to KU and Mizz/Neb

That would put
Mizz at 4-4
KU at 4-4
KSU or Neb at 4-4

KU will have the head to head tiebreaker.

I may be completely missing something

By Gabe DeArmond @ Wednesday, November 04, 2009 11:52 AM
Oh, sure, Kansas CAN win it at 4-4. So can just about everybody else. But I think SOMEBODY will get to 5-3, whether it's Mizzou (quite possible), Nebraska (quite possible), or K-State (not likely IMO)

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