Each week, InsideSTL.com breaks down the matchups in the Tigers' contest. Today, we take a look at the individual battles when Mizzou hosts the Baylor Bears.
Missouri offense versus Baylor defense: The Tiger offense against Colorado was the ones fans have been hoping to see for weeks. Running plays: 45. Passing plays: 30. With Derrick Washington and De'Vion Moore running well, the Tigers finally leaned on the ground game. The production there, along with a vast improvement in Blaine Gabbert's health, led to an offense that finally put things together. For a half.
The second half still wasn't too special. Missouri doubled its second-half scoring output in Big 12 games last week...from three to six. Of course, the offense didn't really have to do much after building a 33-0 lead.
The Tigers are still 91st in the nation running the ball and 32nd throwing it. But over the last three games (outside of flat out ignoring the run in the second half against Oklahoma State) Missouri has moved it well on the ground. That's a good sign facing a Baylor team that ranks 179th in the nation against the run. Baylor has not held a single team below 126 rushing yards this season, and that came in the season opener against Wake Forest.
The Bears are better against the pass, though they have given up 250 yards through the air in three of their five Big 12 games and have yet to face a receiver as good as Danario Alexander, who ranks in the nation's top 12 in catches, yards, yards per game and touchdowns.
Edge: Missouri
Baylor offense versus Missouri defense: You have to really discount the season numbers for the Bears. The first three games were played with Robert Griffin at quarterback. The Bears won two of them. Since Griffin went down, Baylor is 1-and-4. In those five games, the Bears have averaged 13 points a game. They have scored 34 points in four Big 12 contests and have lost each one by at least ten points.
Nick Florence is running the show. He completed just 19-of-38 passes for 222 yards and two picks against Nebraska. The Bears have moved the ball through the air, but they've also been playing from way, way behind in every game.
On the ground, Baylor has 192 rushing yards in four Big 12 games. They rank 92nd in the nation running the ball.
The Tigers have been solid on defense outside of the Texas game. Missouri is 32nd in the nation in total defense and 31st against the run. Baylor is 77th in the nation in sacks allowed and Aldon Smith could make a run at the single-season sack record. He needs three to tie Justin Smith.
EDGE: Missouri
Special Teams: Missouri leads the league in net punting and field goal percentage. Baylor is 10th and 12th in those categories. The Bears are fifth in the league in kickoff returns and could exploit a Tiger coverage unit that has not been very good lately.
EDGE: Missouri
Coaching: Gary Pinkel got his team to respond in a big way last week. He has never lost to Baylor. Art Briles is a good coach, but he's carrying a knife to a gun fight.
EDGE: Missouri
Intangibles: Missouri knows that it cannot lose again if it wants to keep hope alive to win the North. The Tigers are at home. Baylor is, again, playing out the string.
EDGE: Missouri
Final Analysis: Similar to a week ago, any statistic you look at tells you the Tigers are better. I expect to see Mizzou lean on the ground game. Missouri has the ability to blow Baylor completely off the field, but I expect a workmanlike effort as the Tigers get ready to go to Manhattan and have a chance to take control of the Big 12 North. Mizzou gets the win 30-7.
Gabe DeArmond is the publisher of PowerMizzou.com, the Missouri site on the Rivals.com network. You can read his daily coverage of Tiger football and basketball online at http://missouri.rivals.com.