Shepard's Prayer

The Mercury 7 astronaut, Alan Shepard (the first American and second human to ever fly in space as well as the 5th man to set foot on the moon), sat on top of the enormous rocket waiting to shoot him into history in 1961 and dutifully went through his checklist, doing everything he could to make sure he was ready to fly a perfect mission. Right before blast off Mr. Shepard uttered the words that have become more famous than his trip into space…………….. “Dear Lord, please don’t let me fuck up”. This phrase has come to be known as “Shepard’s Prayer”.

Playing profitable cash game poker has as much, if not more, to do with avoiding mistakes as it does with catching a nice run of cards. When playing no limit, one mistake can cost you every single chip you have on the table. Not an earth-shattering observation but the main point of it bears repeating: Never forget that you are ultimately playing for stacks.

If you do not have to recover from mistakes, your good hands will put you solidly in the black instead of keeping you from drowning. As always, the following list is my opinion, nothing more. If you disagree please feel free to fire off a comment or email explaining why. They are my favorite emails to get because I usually learn a lot from the ensuing discussion.

I have found that when I am having a bad night I am consistently making one or more of the following mistakes. Maybe you are too…..

* Over-playing big pairs pre-flop  Don’t telegraph the big pair if you are out of position. If you usually raise 3x or 4x the big blind with KQs, do the same with KK. If you suddenly raise 7x or 8x the big blind it isn’t going to be too hard for the rest of the table to put you on a hand. You may take down the blinds, which isn’t good value, and this scenario also gives good players the incentive to flat call you with cracking hands because they know exactly where you are.

If you have AA or KK, what you are hoping for here is a re-raise you can re-pop (if it’s AA vs. KK the money is probably going in anyway so don’t sweat it) or that you get 1 or 2 callers. It sounds obvious but I see this mistake made all the time. Secondly, if you have QQ or JJ, raise, and get re-raised 3x or more I would absolutely consider laying it down, unless you are certain they are making a play at you. The last two bad sessions I had were created by calling down big re-raises with QQ.

In many low-limit cash games you just don’t see many re-raises with anything less than QQ and it is almost always with AA, KK, or AK suited. In that scenario you are either chopping, crushed or a coin flip. Not exactly awesome odds for a call (the guys I called were kind of maniacs but, sure enough, they had rockets both times).

* Over-playing big pairs post-flop  This is obviously more difficult. Holding QQ against a board of 5, 8, J is a good thing. No reason at all not to bet as the pre flop raiser. Just remember that if you get smooth called here to become suspicious. Many players will just smooth call a set of 5’s here, hoping to raise you when you put in your much larger bet in on the turn. If you feel like you are in this type of situation, I would suggest putting in the same size of bet on the turn as you did the flop, especially if it is a blank. If you get raised here, many players would shove with the over-pair. In my opinion, that is an over-play.

It is exactly what the set of 5’s wants you to do. I would seriously consider folding here, but if you still like your hand, I would suggest just calling the raise in case you are crushed. If you just get flat called again, I would feel pretty safe to bet the river, because he probably has a big jack and is (correctly) worried about an over-pair.

* Calling too often post-flop  I’m not writing about calling down your straight and flush draws when you are getting the right price. This is about failing to raise with them. If you flop a big draw and the pre-flop raiser bets into you, there is a good possibility he is on a c-bet (see last week’s colum). I have found that a minimum raise works very well in this situation. Look at the possible upsides vs. possible downsides.

1. Upsides: You take control of the hand by putting the other player to a decision point. If he re-raises you have better information on what he may have and can make your following decision accordingly (works well with monster draws). He folds and you take it down. He just calls and you have probably freaked him out a little bit and may be able to bet him off the hand if the turn scares him. He calls and you hit your draw with a larger pot to take down.

2. Downsides: He re-raises and you fold (out your minimum raise)

I’m not suggesting you do this on every draw. It is just a nice way to make a play or two without risking too many chips. It’s very effective against the c-bet. If you only just call with your draws, priced in or not, good players will recognize this and act accordingly. This is one of the ways you can attempt to profit from a tough night when you are not catching.

* Limp/Calling out of position pre-flop  This is the chip bleeder move of all-time. Limping in out of position with a hand like K/10, or KJ is going to cost you. If you are playing in early position the saying, “if it’s good enough to call, it’s good enough to raise” is never more useful. I will fold AQo under-the gun all-day before I limp with it and I will usually fold it instead of raising. Calling a raise with AQ under the gun takes away the c-bet and basically any chance you have of winning the hand if you miss.

The other example would be being dealt a hand like 66 UTG + 1….. I love playing small pairs because of the “Helmuth” factor (taking down a monster pot if you hit your set) in any position. I also like to get in cheap with these hands, but if you have been at a table that has seen few limped flops, I would suggest raising here instead of limp/calling someone else’s raise. Why? You take control of the hand, other players will probably range you higher than 66 because you raised in early position, and you have now made the c-bet available to you.

If someone calls your raise with a hand like 88, and the flop comes K, J, 2, your c-bet is going to make him fold a hand that dominated you 4-1 before the flop. If you didn’t raise pre-flop and instead limped/called you will probably check the flop and then fold to HIS c-bet. If you limp/call 10 times in a 5 hour session to 4x bb raises you have just put almost half your 100bb buy-in at risk in weak positions. Not good. (This is the mistake I made the most often for years without realizing it).

Avoiding mistakes like these is not easy. It takes a conscious effort to play “perfect” poker and to make sure you are maximizing each and every session. Nobody can do it 100% right every time. Nobody. But avoiding some of the pitfalls that can kill a session in one fell swoop or bleed you out over time is something we can all aspire to do every time we strap in, say the “prayer”, and wait for ignition.

Alan would be proud.