Trade Bait?

For nearly two years now Cardinals fans have been pining for a trade involving Chris Duncan. Since the lumbering, lead-gloved outfielder fell out of favor after a promising start to his career, every backseat General Manager in town has been barking and jawing about shipping Duncan out of St. Louis. Radio call-in shows have been peppered with scenarios and reasons for how and why we should unload the Cardinal slugger. Yes, Duncan is off to a hot start and could possibly fetch some decent talent in return, but that likely won’t happen… for three reasons.


1. The Cardinals have been very tentative to make a move the last few years – especially mid-season – and wouldn’t package Duncan in a deal unless they were getting something that was too good to turn down. That likely wouldn’t happen because teams know that the Cardinals are handcuffed with the fact that Duncan is holding back super-prospect Colby Rasmus and is essentially expendable. He would also likely have to go to a team in the American League with specific needs; one that is lacking in the DH or first base departments. Unfortunately the AL is already littered with hitters that can’t play the field and those vacancies are few and far between. Duncan would be a tough sell, and opposing GMs would use that to handicap the Cardinals in the deal. And really people, what’s the point of unloading him if you’re not getting anything worthwhile in return?


2. In case you haven’t noticed, Duncan is healthy and hitting again. The Cardinal outfielder is batting .312 with three home runs and 16 RBI. He’s also leading the team in doubles (eight) and has the second highest slugging percentage of anyone on the club with at least 60 at-bats. Duncan has also walked 14 times this season. That’s higher than anyone not named Albert Pujols, and shows how far Duncan’s plate discipline has progressed. He’s getting on base at a .413 clip and has consistently proved to be a tough out for opposing pitchers. With Rick Ankiel slumping, Khalil Greene injured and Colby Rasmus hitting just .270 with little power, do you really want Duncan out of this lineup? The Cards wouldn’t have the best record in baseball without his contributions to this point.


3. Tony loves him. In a baseball world where Tony LaRussa calls the shots, not everyone is going to be happy, but everyone eventually deals with it. It’s LaRussa’s way or the highway, and no one wants to go chin to chin with the skipper and get booted or benched. Duncan clearly gets preferential treatment because of who his father is and the relationship he has with the Cardinal Manager, but as long as Duncan is producing who cares why he’s in the lineup? Sure, it would be nice if Rasmus was able to play everyday and develop quicker at the Major League level, but even if Duncan was traded that wouldn’t happen. Tony likes to micromanage and play the match-ups too much to just stick with three outfielders. With Duncan out of the picture, LaRussa would just import a Joe Mather or Nick Stavanoha and Rasmus would end up with the same amount of at-bats regardless of Duncan’s presence. But don’t think for a minute that Tony would stand for Dave’s boy being boxed up and sent off to the American League.


Perhaps Duncan is just off to an uncharacteristic hot start and his stats will come back down to Earth when everything evens out. Perhaps. But there is also the very real possibility that Duncan’s previous struggles were due to injury and he’s healthy now and simply playing up to the level of his potential. Either way, shipping him out of town is likely not a realistic possibility. So, Cardinal Nation, I implore you. Stop with all calls and the grandiose scenarios and the longing requests for Duncan’s departure.


It’s not gonna happen.