Gabe DeArmond posted on March 08, 2010 15:42
As Missouri gets ready for the event in which last season's greatest triumph occurred, I pondered an interesting question: Has this season actually been as impressive as last?
I know most of you will immediately dismiss the thought. But hang with me for a bit.
Last year at this time, Missouri was 25-and-6. They were coming off a regular season finale in which, for the most part, they had failed to show up. The Tigers lost last year's final regular season game 96-86 at Texas A&M.
This year, the Tigers are 22-and-9. They are coming off a regular season finale in which, for the most part, they were not competitive. The difference, of course, is that this one was against the best team in the country, something last year's Aggies could not claim.
So, the Tigers are three games worse at this point than they were a year ago. Even if they were to win the national title (not happening), they would have a lower winning percentage than they did in 2008-09. So, in terms of sheer numbers, I will give you that this year is not as good.
But look a little deeper. Last year's team was picked seventh in the Big 12. But the personnel dictated that was too low. Those of us who saw DeMarre Carroll practice every day knew the player he could be. Those who had seen Zaire Taylor—and talked to people around the program about him—knew he would be big. Before last season,
Mike Anderson had said with Taylor, the Tigers would have been a handful of games better in 2007-08. He was right.
So last year's team featured two front court players who could score. It featured two guards who had been starters at the Division One level. It featured a 40% three-point shooter. And it brought a bunch of role players off the bench.
This season, Missouri has not one proven frontcourt player. Neither Keith Ramsey or Laurence Bowers was a starter last season. It lost the 40% shooter (Matt Lawrence) and replaced him with Kim English, who shot 37% from deep both last year and this. It seems like a small difference, but English has made 21 fewer threes this year than Lawrence did last year. If the numbers were equal, would Missouri have won another game or two? Quite possible.
The only constants from last year's lineup to this were Taylor and J.T. Tiller. Tiller battled two injuries, a one-game suspension and an adjustment to his role as the leader of the team.
Last year, Missouri could bring Ramsey and Bowers off the bench, plus English and Marcus Denmon and Miguel Paul. This year, Steve Moore is the only frontcourt man off the bench after Justin Safford's injury. Denmon and Paul are still there. English's bench production of 6.5 points in 14 minutes was replaced by Mike Dixon's 7.2 in 17 minutes.
In other words, the starting lineup isn't as good. The bench also isn't as good. And Missouri isn't that far off what they were a year ago.
What is different is the Tigers' standing in the Big 12. Last season, Missouri was 12-and-4 and finished second. This year, the Tigers were 10-and-6 and finished fifth. Missouri lost three games by five points or less in the league. They were one win away (by either the Tigers, Texas or Oklahoma State) from being the third seed. And this year's Big 12 is better than last year's when you consider the improvements by Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M and Colorado. In other words, in a better league, Missouri finished about five points worse than it did a season ago.
To this point in the season, I would argue what Mike Anderson has done this year is every bit as impressive as what he did a year ago. But that brings us to what is yet to come. That's when last year's Missouri team really made its season special. The Tigers won three games and took home the Big 12 tournament title. Let's not forget, in so doing, they never had to play a team that finished in the top four in the league standings. I'm not pointing it out to diminish what that team did. But the fact is, they caught a couple of breaks. If Kansas were to lose to Colorado and K-State falls to Oklahoma State, it's not hard to see Missouri winning the tournament this year. And even so, they'd have a tougher road than last year's team did.
Missouri, of course, really capped the season with an NCAA Tournament run to the Elite Eight. The Tigers pounded Cornell, survived Marquette and blitzed Memphis before falling to Connecticut. And that's where I think people are drawing a big line between last season and this one. Most don't think this is a Tiger team capable of making that kind of a run. And maybe they're right.
But the simple fact is, through this point in the season, Missouri is about three possessions worse than it was last year. That's a heck of a coaching job. Is it better than last year? Honestly, I don't think the question is all that ridiculous.
Gabe DeArmond is the publisher of PowerMizzou.com, the Missouri site on the Rivals.com network. You can read his daily coverage of the Tigers, and their games in the Big 12 tournament this week, online at http://missouri.rivals.com.