posted on September 05, 2013 16:46
Week Two of The Friendly’s Football Picks of The Week
In a rather Sesame Street move, a gentleman going by the name “s” won Week One of The Friendly’s Football Picks of The Week.
“s” went 5-1 and won the tiebreaker to take down the $25 gift certificate from Friendly’s.
“s” will try and defend his title this week, and you can attempt to take him down by picking the games we select and also picking your own Lock of The Week in the comments section below. Also make sure to submit the total points for the Rams and Cardinals as the tiebreaker.
Denny From Friendly’s took the lead in our season-long wager by going 4-2. I went 3-3. Producer Joe went 2-4. However, I have the lead on the overall season-long tiebreaker out of the gate by hitting my Lock of The Week whereas Denny and Producer Joe missed both of their locks.
You can count on Producer Joe for soccer wagers. You can count on Producer Joe losing his Locks of The Week. It’s really rather odd.
Either way, here’s where we are a week in:
Denny: 4-2 (0-1)
Me: 3-3 (1-0)
@ProdJoe: 2-4 (0-1)
With the formalities and knowledge out of the way, let’s get to Week Two:
Toledo at Missouri (-17)
Producer Joe: Missouri's march to 4-0 continues with a heated rivalry game....oh. Yeah, Toledo. The Pinkel Bowl. When these two teams get together it's anyone's guess what could possibly happen. I will take a guess though and say that this game will be closer than the 18 point loss Toledo suffered in the Swamp last week. I am going to take the points and continue to believe that Mizzou loses outright at Indiana before they can get to 4-0.
Pick: Toledo (+17)
Denny: Pick: Missouri (-17)
Tim: Who would’ve thought I’d be picking a Toledo game for the first two weeks of the season…but that’s exactly where I am after taking the Rockets for my Lock of The Week. Because I had them for my Lock…and because I wagered on them, I actually watched Toledo play. They hung around in Gainesville before losing 24-6. And, had their QB been able to hit some open receivers, that game would’ve been closer. It’s tough to gauge where Missouri is at this point…but I think we’ll have a much better idea following the 2:30 kickoff in Columbia. At that point, they’ll have a common opponent with an SEC East rival. The difference here is that Florida’s approach in 2013 vs. Missouri’s approach are two totally different things. Florida grinds out wins…as we saw last year against the Tigers in The Swamp. Missouri is attempting to be a fast-paced offense. I think the Tigers will score quite a few points Saturday, but I think they will give up a decent amount as well. I’m thinking/hoping something in the 41-27 vicinity. A loss to the Rockets, which has a chance of happening in my opinion, would be horrid.
Pick: Toledo (+17)
South Carolina at Georgia (-3)
Producer Joe: Lost on the Bulldogs last weekend but that doesn't scare me off, I have lost on the over of Liverpool games 3 weeks in a row now. This is the same position the Dawgs were in 2 years ago coming off an opening week loss to Boise State before playing the Gamecocks. They lost to the Gamecocks that week to start 0-2....before ripping off 10 wins in a row on the way to the Georgia Dome and the SEC Championship Game. Different story this time around. Aaron Murray improves on his 1-10 record against teams in the Top 15 and picks up a big home win.
Pick: Georgia (-3)
Denny: Pick: South Carolina (+3)
Tim: Not sure what the hell the over of the Liverpool game has to to do with the outcome of this game, but outside of that, I agree with Producer Joe.
Pick: Georgia (-3)
Notre Dame at Michigan (-4)
Producer Joe: I am searching for something good to say about Notre Dame but the words are escaping me while I write this at 6:45 in the morning. I thought last year was a smoke and mirrors show & I'm sorry, I just don't think Tommy Rees has the ability to go into the Big House and win this weekend. Plus, it is hard to pick against a head coach that looks like he is stuffed with Krispy Kreme doughnuts.
Pick: Michigan (-4)
Denny: Pick: Michigan (-4)
Tim: Pick: Notre Dame (+4)
Cardinals at Rams (-4.5)
Producer Joe: I made a wager while I was drunk in Florida at the end of July taking the Cardinals O5.5 season wins. I love technology, but being able to wager on games from my phone has proven to be a bad idea in the past. This was before the Cards first round draft pick injured himself for the season and OL seems to be a problem for the Cardinals for another season. Oh, and I am also wagering on the fact that Carson Palmer is going to hold up for another season after getting destroyed week in and week out. So it goes. On the Rams side of things pardon me for not being as excited as some around town. The one positive that this season will bring is the fact that Bradford Excuses will be gone. Weapons-check, OL protection-check, same OC-check. Its all on the guy in his 4th season to show he was worth being drafted #1. My biggest concern is that he will remain the King of the Checkdown & continue to throw 3rd and 8 passes three yards short of the first down marker. Think the Rams win but it's going to be a close game. Pick: Cardinals (+4.5)
Denny: Pick: Rams (-4.5)
Tim: In 2011, both Producer Joe and I mocked the optimism surrounding the Rams. We happened to be right as that season played out to be a disaster. This year, we break ranks. I believe the Rams will be a good offense…and I’m hoping the defense continues to trend up. @ProdJoe is not sold. I’ll say this, if they don’t beat the Cardinals, it’s big trouble. I don’t buy into Arizona. Strong front seven. Improved secondary. But, on the offensive side of the ball, even with a legitimate QB for the first time since Kurt Warner, I wonder how they’re going to get the ball going on the ground and through the air with that offensive line. I am a big fan of the Rams and the over (41) in this one.
Pick: Rams (-4.5)
Bengals at Bears (-3)
Producer Joe: Maybe it is because I have watched 5 weeks worth of training camp on Hard Knocks, but I love the Bengals. Something tells me there are a lot of others out there that feel the same way. Game has dropped .5 a point already and I think it gets down to around 2.5-2.0 before kickoff. Take the points while you can get them.
Pick: Bengals (+3)
Denny: Pick: Bengals (+3)
Tim: Why the fuck are we picking this game? Because Producer Joe liked Hard Knocks? Sweet. Good thing we’re not talking about the 49ers-Packers or Eagles-Redskins. We’ll lock in on this handjob festival. I will pick the Bears a) because Matt Forte is a member of the South Side Seamen Fantasy Football Club, LLC and b) because I’m protesting the fact that we’re picking crappy games.
Pick: Bears (-3)
Falcons at Saints (-3)
Producer Joe: I think the Falcons are the 3rd best team in the NFC with the best offense in the conference overall. I also hate betting against the Saints at home. Their defense isn't very good this year again but there is no way it can be any worse than it was season. The last time I bet a game against the Saints when they were facing the Falcons was their home opener at the Superdome following Katrina. I am going to give it another shot with the return of Sean Payton.
Pick: Falcons (+3)
Denny: Pick: Falcons (+3)
Tim: This is tough. My inclination is to go with the Falcons. Big time. And, my guess is that is where most of the public is. Hell, I’d take the Falcons -3…forget about +3. So, the question is do I go into “pick the opposite of the public” mode? Sure seems shifty…and therefore my wisdom tells me that in this situation, my instinct has to be to go against my instinct. Follow me? No? I don’t blame you. But, here’s what I know…somehow the Saints will win this thing by more than 3…and Las Vegas will win big.
Pick: Saints (-3)
Lock of The Week
Producer Joe: Giants at Cowboys (-3.5): Love the Cowboys. Love them a whole lot. Pick: Cowboys (-3.5)
Denny: Texans (-5.5) at Chargers: Pick: Texans (-5.5)
Tim: Patriots at Bills (+10.5): I know many (derp, a handful) of you count on my Locks of The Week. So, I want to give full disclosure and tell you that I looked at the spreads a couple of times to see if there was a game I loved…and there just wasn’t one. So, do with that what you want. I was considering Stanford (-26) vs. San Jose State. I was considering the Chiefs (-4) in Jacksonville. But, when it was all said and done, I went with the double-digit home underdog. Picking the Buffalo Bills in anything is a questionable move. To pick them in a football game…against the Patriots…is quite questionable. But, the double-digit home underdog is a historically profitable wagering strategy. They don’t come around often, but when they do, according to wagerminds.com, from 1988 through 2011, the double-digit home NFL underdog covered close to 60% of the time. Of course, my guess is those teams didn’t have some guy named “Tuel” who was in the mix to be the starting QB up until four days ago. I can’t believe I’m doing this…
Pick: Bills (+10.5)
Now’s your chance to participate in The Friendly’s Football Picks of The Week. Just log-in and pick the six games we all picked…and come up with your own Lock of The Week with the most recent spread on www.scoresandodds.com. Make sure to submit a tiebreaker using the total points scored in the Rams and Cardinals’ game. Whoever does the best wins a $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill.