posted on September 20, 2013 07:06
Week Four of The Friendly’s Football Picks of The Week
There’s hole pwning. And then there’s hole pwning.
I lined up against Producer Joe on all of our picks for each and every game last weekend---a risky proposition considering all hell could’ve broken loose had I been wrong---and with the two pushes (Falcons and Rams, and Illinois and Washington), I went 4-1.
Woot to the woot.
Not that it needs to be publicized, as it’s a given at this point, but my Lock of The Week hit…again. At some point, you people, and by you people, I mean those of you ignoring the locks I provide, will get on board with my wizardry.
Producer Joe went 1-4 and lost his Lock of The Week…again.
He also got his fucking soccer pick wrong again, and I actually blindly played that game with him.
Denny had a rough outing as well, but his disaster was only 2-3 instead of 1-4, and Denny won his First Lock of The Week.
So, here’s where we are through three weeks:
Tim: 11-6 (3-0 Locks of The Week)
Producer Joe: 8-9 (1-2 Locks of The Week)
Denny: 7-10 (1-2 Locks of The Week)
For as brilliant as I was again---obviously---I could not do better than Drs6222, who went undefeated last week to take down the $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s.
You can participate in The Friendly’s Football Picks of The Week by logging-in below and picking the six games we pick and selecting your own Lock of The Week with the most recent spreads from www.scoresandodds.com.
Time for another hole pwning…
Missouri (-3.5) at Indiana
Producer Joe: I have been saying for a few weeks that I didn't think Mizzou would open the season 4-0. I don't think they are going to lose to Arkansas State it is only stands to reason that this would be the week that they drop a game. It's going to happen. It won't be pretty in Bloomington. Even with a bye week prior to this match-up the 'Gers are in trouble. I don't like the fact that the line has dropped by 1.5-2.0 points since it opened. That tells me I am not alone in backing the Hoosiers. Public money scares me a bit but I have seen enough of the Tigers defense to know that Indiana is going to put up 40+. Pick: Indiana (+3.5)
Denny: Pick: Missouri (-3.5)
Tim: This is one of the two swing games of the year for the Tigers: this trip to Bloomington and the trip in two weeks to Nashville to take on Vanderbilt. We’ll have an idea of what is realistic for Missouri in 2013 by the time they get back from Nashville. But, if this trip to Indiana goes poorly, we likely won’t need to wait until the Vanderbilt game to have an idea of what they can do this year. The fact that the defense didn’t look particularly good against Toledo didn’t surprise me. But, the fact that the offensive line didn’t give James Franklin much time did surprise me. So, I’m anxious to see how they handle this trip to Bloomington. Indiana does have the home loss to Navy, but Navy may be a pretty good team this year. It’s a coin flip, but I’ll go with Missouri.
Pick: Missouri (-3.5)
Kansas State at Texas (-5)
Producer Joe: Things really couldn't be worse in Austin right now. Lost to BYU, lost at home to Ole Miss and then they start the conference season against K-State. But K-State isn't anything special so there is the possibility that the Longhorns can calm the storm a bit this weekend. I just don't believe it will happen. They can't stop the run and Mack Brown has to read the writing on the wall. I am going to take the points.
Pick: Kansas State (+5)
Denny: Pick: Kansas State (+5)
Tim: Pick: Kansas State (+5)
Tennessee at Florida (-17)
Producer Joe: This game used to be something massive and important in the landscape of the SEC. Hell it might mean something again in a few years but this year it's just another game. Sure it's the best game in the conference for the weekend but that doesn't say much. I am going to take the Vols although I don't feel great about it. The number just screams to take the Vols because I don't know if Florida could beat anyone by 17 points with their offense at this point.
Pick: Tennessee (+17)
Denny: Pick: Florida (-17)
Tim: Teasing Tennessee up to +23 is part of my FIVE STAR PLAY OF THE YEAR along with another game we’re about to discuss. Florida can’t score enough to cover 23. I don’t know about 17, but I’ll take my chances.
Pick: Tennessee (+17)
Rams at Cowboys (-4.5)
Producer Joe: You would think that the team that led the league in penalties in 2012 would make some changes and get it figured out the following season with a veteran head coach....nope. And I don't care if Fisher wants to talk about the legitimacy of the flags that were thrown in the Georgia Dome last weekend. It's still a problem with this team. Pass defense is also a problem and it will be exposed again against the Cowboys. They don't have enough guys that can hold coverage if the pass rush doesn't get home in a hurry. Miles Austin will have a field day with Finnegan.
Pick: Cowboys (-4.5)
Denny: Pick: Rams (+4.5)
Tim: I’m leaning on the Rams here, so do with that what you want. But, I’m loving teasing the over down from 47.5 to 41.5 for the second half of my FIVE STAR PLAY OF THE YEAR. Tennessee (+23) and Rams/Cowboys over at 41.5.
Pick: Rams (+4.5)
Packers (-3) at Bengals
Producer Joe: Don't really feel passionate one way or another but I will back the team that threw for 400+ yards and ran for 100+ yards last week.
Pick: Packers (-3)
Denny: Pick: Packers (-3)
Tim: This one scares me, because my guess is there’ll be a lot of public money on the Packers. Last week, of the five most-wagered upon teams by the public, four didn’t cover. I’m still going to go with the public on this one. Could be a move I regret.
Pick: Packers (-3)
Jaguars at Seahawks (-20)
Producer Joe: Only picked this game because the line is so obnoxious that it almost seems hard to believe that two NFL teams are facing off against one another. The Jags are possibly the most pathetic NFL team that has ever played. The Lions that went 0-16 were at least building towards something. I have no idea what the direction of the Jaguars is at this point.
Denny: Pick: Seahawks (-20)
Tim: When I try to get a gauge on this situation in Seattle, I attempt to figure out what the absolute highest amount of points the Jaguars will score. I’ve come up with 14…and that’s the absolute highest I can see them scoring…and that’s likely about 5% or below. So, then the question becomes can/will the Jaguars hold the Seahawks to under 35, and I put that at less than 50%. Therefore, even though the spread is huge, the move is simple.
Pick: Seahawks (-20)
Locks of The Week
Producer Joe: Falcons (+2) at Dolphins: Not even a game. Don't care about the fact that the Fins are 2-0.
Pick: Falcons (+2)
Denny: Raiders at Broncos (-16):
Pick: Broncos (-16)
Tim: Giants (-1) at Panthers: You wouldn’t believe how long I’ve spent deciding on my Lock of The Week. Quite honestly, I’m embarrassed that it’s something I’m taking this seriously, but at the same time, considering my Lock of The Week track record, I know some of you will make financial decisions based on what I put out there. So, I have an obligation to take this seriously. I looked at the college lines and NFL lines over and over again. My winning percentage on college isn’t nearly as good as my winning percentage on NFL, so after not seeing something that really tickled my hole in college, I settled that this week’s lock would be in the NFL. I tried to find a bad team with a reputation for being a good team…up against a decent team with a reputation for being a bad team…and then see what the number was. I came down to two games. Redskins giving up 1.5 at home against the Lions. And, the Panthers getting one at home against the Giants. Carolina could’ve/should’ve beaten Seattle in Week 1. Carolina could’ve/should’ve beaten Buffalo in Buffalo in Week 2. The Giants might just be a really bad team with the reputation of two years ago still leading to the spreads being favorable. The decision is made.
Pick: Panthers (+1)
Now it’s your turn to participate in The Friendly’s Football Picks of The Week. Log-in and pick the six games we picked. Also pick your own Lock of The Week using the most recent spreads from www.scoresandodds.com. As a tiebreaker, give the total points of the Rams and Cowboys. Whoever does the best wins a $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill.