posted on September 26, 2013 07:12
Week Five of The Friendly’s Football Picks of The Week
The Friendly’s Football Picks of The Week are turning into the National League East. I’m the Braves. Producer Joe and Denny are the Nationals and Mets.
Just four weeks into this thing, I have a four game lead. And, outside of pwning them for the second year in a row, more importantly, I’m delivering on Locks of The Week for you.
Last week, I gave you the Panthers (+1) at home.
You didn’t even break a sweat.
38-0 was your final.
At some point, if you’re just trying to win the $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s, you just need to trust me and put my Lock of The Week as your Lock of The Week.
But, feel free to keep dicking around on public money trap games like the Vikings against the Browns last week…or the one I fucking knew was a mess…the Packers against the Bengals. I didn’t have the balls to pull the Cincinnati trigger. It cost me.
But, despite that, I still had a 4-3 week with a 1-0 mark in Locks of The Week, while @ProdJoe and Denny went 3-4. Here’s a look at the standings through four weeks:
Tim: 15-9 (4-0 Locks of The Week)
Producer Joe: 11-13 (1-3 Locks of The Week)
Denny: 10-14 (2-2 Locks of The Week)
Kevin Schaefer did some major damage in going 6-1 last week to win the $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s. Quite impressive, sir. Congratulations.
You can win the $25 gift certificate this week by picking the six games we all pick…and then selecting your own Lock of The Week based on the latest lines from www.scoresandodds.com. As a tiebreaker, give the total points of the Rams-49ers.
We’re getting it going a day early this week because of the Thursday Night Game, so get your picks in by 7:30 tonight.
Let us begin.
Arkansas State at Missouri (-21)
Producer Joe: I am going to end up wrong about starting the season 4-0 I think. I can live with that. I still don't think the Tigers are very good though and beating Indiana doesn't change that feeling at all. This weekend shouldn't be a game with Arky State and I am actually going to do something I haven't done all season long, pick the Tigers to cover. I hope it isn't the dreaded reverse curse. Pick: Missouri (-21)
Denny: Pick: Missouri (-21)
Tim: I don’t know what the record is when all three of us pick the same team, but I would venture a guess that it’s about a 33% success rate. Not good. However, I was stunned by how good the Missouri defense looked last week against Indiana. Yes, Angry Illinois Fan, I’m well aware that it was Indiana, but if there’s one thing the Hoosiers do well, it’s move the football. They didn’t do much of that at all in the second half until the game was well out of reach. Now, we’ll see if Missouri can carry that over to Arkansas State…and most likely, more importantly, the SEC schedule. The offense looks like it has weapons galore along with a reborn James Franklin. Arkansas State, meanwhile, was one of two favorites last week that didn’t win. They’ve been sodomized at both Auburn and Memphis. Hopefully there will be no letdown in Columbia for the Tigers. Pick: Missouri (-21)
LSU at Georgia (-2.5)
Producer Joe: The biggest game of the weekend by far. If Georgia has any hope of playing for the national championship they have to win this game at home. Now listen, if Georgia still wins the East and beats Alabama in the SEC Championship game I still think they have an argument for playing for the NC but I can't see voters putting a 2 loss SEC team ahead of a weak-ass undefeated Ohio State at the end of the year. But that is an argument for another day. Now that Aaron Murray has shown that he can win a big game (Week 2 against South Carolina) I think the Dawgs end up having too much offense for the Bayou Bengals. Pick: Georgia (-2.5)
Denny: Pick: Georgia (-2.5)
Tim: I have a theory on this one…and it won’t be proven one way or the other this weekend, but I think there’s a chance that neither one of these teams are as great as their ranking indicates. Now, I have watched LSU play once and Georgia twice, so it’s not like I’m reviewing film. But, I think there may be a little bit of history and program DNA leading to their rankings as opposed to actual potential this season. Like I said, that doesn’t mean we’ll find that out Saturday night. They both could be less good than many think, and no matter what, one of them is picking up a win Saturday. So, my job is to stop babbling and make a pick. Complete coin flip for me at this point. LSU had to battle against a TCU team that doesn’t appear to be great. Georgia dicked around with North Texas last week. I’ll go home team when in doubt. Pick: Georgia (-2.5)
Ole Miss at Alabama (-15.5)
Producer Joe: Ole Miss is building something that Mizzou fans should be jealous of at this point. Hugh Freeze has arrived in Oxford and changed the complexion of the program and recruiting has never been better. But all the recruiting in the world isn't enough to match Bama in Tuscaloosa. Roll....Damn. Tide. Pick: Alabama (-15.5)
Denny: Pick: Alabama (-15.5)
Tim: If I pick Roll Damn Tide, we are all in lockstep on all three college games. Outside of my stated belief that when all three of us pick the same thing, we lose way more often than we win…the statistical probability of all three favorites covering is quite low. Should Missouri cover against Arkansas State? I haven’t seen Arkansas State play, but my inclination based on the Red Wolves (yes, that’s their name) and their record and scores in games this season, the Tigers should win handily. I think LSU and Georgia could both be overrated and evenly matched, so that’s a flip. And, then there’s this game. Alabama hasn’t looked great to me yet. Including Texas A & M. Remember, they got blasted out of the blocks in College Station, and they almost blew that huge lead. They dicked around with Virginia Tech in the first week, and they really dicked around with Colorado State last week. Ole Miss, on the other hand, has impressed me. But, my fear in going against Roll Damn Tide is this is the game where they finally wake up and bury a team. It seems like this happens often. An upstart SEC team feels really good about itself, and then they head to Tuscaloosa, and by the time they leave, Nick Saban has let them know they’re not in the same league by running it up on them real nicelike. Ahhhhhhh. This is tough. Pick: Alabama (-15.5)
49ers (-4) at Rams
Producer Joe: Both of these teams were embarrassed last week. The Rams didn't look like they wanted any part of playing against the Cowboys and the Niners did something they haven't done since Harbaugh has been their head coach (lost outright and ATS following a loss). One of the two trends ends Thursday night and I apologize for backing Harbaugh. He doesn't seem scared to make changes unlike Jeff Fisher. While watching the game on Sunday I was thinking that Fisher refused to go to an up-tempo offense just so that it couldn't be another topic of conversation following the game if it were to be successful. I'm am still not 100% certain that wasn't the case. Either way this week there will be a whole lot more to explain because last year the Rams could talk about the fact that they didn't lose to the NFC Champions. This year they are going to lose, and they are going to lose at home. There are a lot of things that need to change with this team and if there are more special teams penalties this week I hope a player gets sent straight to the locker room. Just cut them. Pick: 49ers (-4)
Denny: Pick: 49ers (-4)
Tim: If the 49ers were healthy and/or not dealing with the situation that Aldon Smith is dealing with, I’d think twice. But, in these circumstances, I like the Rams…quite a bit. First off, and most importantly, they’re ditching those fucking all blue uniforms and wearing all white. That’s worth a touchdown in my nitwit analysis. Second, I just cannot believe that the Rams will dick around with the offense like they did in Dallas. If they do, I think fans will have reason to question just how far this organization has come and what progress has really been made in the new administration. I think they go after the 49ers and capitalize on a beat-up defense. And, finally, Colin Kaepernick is not the same guy this year so far. Hell, when he was on top of the world last year, the Rams were the only team to keep him in check. Now, he’s struggling, and he has to come to St. Louis. Huge game for both, but I think the Rams win this one. Pick: Rams (+4)
Seahawks (-3) at Texans
Producer Joe: The Seahawks have been the most impressive team in the NFC in my opinion so far this season. Oh, and they have done it without the big off-season offensive acquisition. This team is going to get even better. Scary good. They aren't losing this weekend and it won't be a field goal game. Pick: Seahawks (-3)
Denny: Pick: Texans (+3)
Tim: The recipe is in place. Good team coming off of a bad loss against a great team at home. The Seahawks are in a world of their own in Seattle. And they may be the best team in the NFC. But, the Texans are a good team as well…and they’ll win this one. Pick: Texans (+3)
Eagles at Broncos (-11.5)
Producer Joe: Bet the Broncos until they lose. Simple pick. They will be approaching 2007 Patriot lines by the end of the season. (And they didn't push in the Monday night game in most books). Pick: Broncos (-11.5)
Denny: Pick: Broncos (-11.5)
Tim: I hesitate to type this, but I think Producer Joe is right on targe on this one. This could be a 2007 Patriots’ kind of situation. I’m not sure about their defense, and I’m quite anxious to see what they do against the Eagles’ offense. The over is at 58. Logic dictates this thing is going over, but that makes me think it won’t…which then would make it difficult for the Broncos to cover if the Eagles are able to put 21, which I would expect them to do. Either way, even though no one loves the favorites more than Producer Joe, which is the quickest way to go busto in sports wagering, I think he’s right here. Pick: Broncos (-11.5)
Locks of The Week
Producer Joe: Patriots at Falcons (-2): I won't lose two weeks in a row on the Falcons. Pick: Falcons (-2)
Denny: Jets at Titans (-4): Pick: Titans (-4)
Tim: Cowboys at Chargers (+2): I was going back and forth on two games, and I’d actually recommend both. The one that didn’t live up to The Lock of The Week Standard was the Bills (+3.5) at home against the Ravens. It has all the makings of a good play. The variable is I’m not sure the Bills are a decent team…and therefore, they could get run. Although, I would allocate a low probability to that based on what I’ve seen from them against a good team that people think is great (Patriots) and a good team that people think is average or bad (Panthers). Not sure what to make of the game against the Jets (a seven-point loss), but that was in New York, so using the apples to apples comparison, I think Buffalo at home is a strong play. But, I am not convinced the Cowboys are a good team, and I do believe the Chargers are a much better than publicly perceived team. Furthermore, the recipe is perfect: the Cowboys are coming off of a huge win against a team that played terribly/was coached terribly (skewing public perception inaccurately), and the Chargers are 1-2…but two plays from being 3-0 against some decent teams (Texans, Eagles, and Titans). This is the move this week.
Pick: Chargers (+2)
Now’s your chance to participate in the fun and games. Log-in and pick the six games we picked plus a Lock of The Week with the most recent spread from www.scoresandodds.com. As a tiebreaker, give the total points of the Rams and 49ers. Whoever does the best wins a $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill.