Week Thirteen of The Friendly’s Football Picks of The Week
Well, it finally happened.
One person---one fucking person---acknowledged my 2013 run through the Friendly’s Football Picks of The Weeks and the 67% winning percentage against the spread.
The guy tweeted it at me two days ago. I went to go copy it and embed it in this column, and I guess he deleted it, because I can’t find it.
So, even when one person acknowledges the greatness that is this 67% ATS (against the spread, yo) record, they delete it.
I now have to morph into stereotypical sports talk radio guy screaming about something he doesn’t really care about. You know…Faux Anger Guy.
Pay. Attention. To. Me.
I’m. Pwning. Holes.
67% against the spread. 50-26 against the number. I would hope some of you whores are finally paying enough attention to get wealthy off of this run.
Not only am I picking games at 67%, I’m giving you FIVE STAR PLAYS OF THE YEAR ON FOUR-GAME SWEETHEART TEASERS!
Last week, you received a sweat-free FIVE STAR PLAY OF THE YEAR that included:
Vanderbilt (-1/2 point) against Kentucky: shipped
South Carolina (-1/2 point) against Florida: shipped
Duke (+15 ½ points) against Miami-Florida: shipped
Seahawks (+1/2 point) against the Vikings: shipped
This was on a weekend that I didn’t really like many games.
Well, you and your holiday bankroll will be happy to hear this anecdote:
As I was flying down to the Florida campus of insideSTL’s world headquarters (ie, a brief vacation), I turned to my betrothed---who is appalled by my poker, pornography, and sports wagering fancies---and said, “I got to tell you something,” as I looked at this weekend’s spreads, “I love some plays on both Saturday and Sunday.”
Yes, yes, y’all. We finna get paid this weekend.
I may hit you with a few different FIVE STAR PLAYS OF THE YEAR in my Locks of The Week down below.
But, before I do, I tip my cap to Chris Siekerman for shipping the $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill. He went 5-1 last week (we all pushed the Saints and 49ers), and that was good enough to get him the $25 gift certificate.
I went 4-2 and 1-0 on my Lock to improve to 50-26 on the year overall and 8-4 on my Locks. Denny From Friendly’s slipped up and went 2-4 (0-1 on his Lock of The Week) to fall 10 games back of me at 40-36. And, Producer Joe went 3-3, but he did win his Lock to improve to 4-8 on his Locks of The Week.
Here’s a look at the standings through 12 weeks:
Tim: 50-26 (8-4 Locks of The Week)
Denny: 40-36 (6-6 LOTW), 2-4 (0-1)
Producer Joe: 37-39 (4-8 LOTW), 3-3 (1-0)
Maybe it’s the island air, but I’m feeling bullish on this weekend. Beware The Shipping. We all gonna get paid, yo.
Missouri (-2.5) at Ole Miss
Producer Joe: At the beginning of the season if I would have told you that the Tigers would be 9-1 (5-1) heading into the 3rd weekend of the November you would have thought I was insane. If I would have also told you that they have a chance for their best victory of the season up to this point against Ole Miss you would have told me I was high. But that is the case right now. The Tigers haven't beaten a team inside the current Top 25 BCS Standings. Hell, the only team they have played at this point inside the Top 25 BCS Standings is South Carolina. Just an odd year in the SEC East. But Mizzou controls its own destiny and they have to get a win this weekend to make next weekend what it could be. I think they get it done.
Pick: Missouri (-2.5)
Denny: Pick: Missouri (-2.5)
Tim: Oh, my. I’m fired up for this one. And, as it turns out---somewhat to my surprise---you’re fired up for this one. In our Thursday insideSTL poll, we asked which game this weekend (Missouri-Ole Miss, Rams-Bears, or Blues-Stars) are you looking forward to most, and the Tigers and Rebels got close to 75% of the vote. A win for Missouri sets up the biggest game at Faurot Field since the Tigers and Jayhawks played a game in 1960 with National Championship implications. Johnny Football with the Heisman on the line. The Tigers with the SEC East on the line. Senior Day. Black out. Night game. ESPN National Television Audience. Oh, my. But, the importance goes down drastically with a loss against Ole Miss. Personally, I’m surprised the Tigers are favored. I’m also surprised the number hasn’t dropped more. It started at 3. It’s only down to 2.5. These teams have one common opponent: Vanderbilt. Ole Miss came back to win in Nashville in the first week of the season. Missouri blew the Commodores off the field. But, Ole Miss has played a much more difficult schedule, as it has turned out the SEC West is in a different world than the SEC East this year. Is Missouri as good as their record and the manner with which they’ve beaten teams? Would they be undefeated with James Franklin under center every game (as he returns this weekend)? Is Ole Miss flying under the radar…because of their three losses (even though they were at Alabama, at Auburn, and at home against Texas A & M? Honestly…I’m not sure. I’m really not. I think this is a great Missouri team, but as Gabe DeArmond said this week, their best win this year might be at Vanderbilt. Blah. Win this one…and it’s their best win…at least for six days. Then, it will be insanity at Faurot Field the following Saturday.
Pick: Missouri (-2.5)
Baylor (-10) at Oklahoma State
Producer Joe: If you are a Tiger fan hoping for a chance at a national championship game appearance you really need to hope that Baylor loses. With a win this weekend they will jump over Ohio State in my opinion and it may be their last chance to lose a game this season. I think it happens. I still have no idea how Oklahoma State lost to West Virginia but this win is a big one for the Pokes. Taking the home dog and thinking they win outright.
Pick: Oklahoma State (+10)
Denny: Pick: Baylor (-10)
Tim: This game will end the Baylor dream. They’ve played two true road games. Two. One was against Kansas, so theoretically, that doesn’t count as Kansas would be a small underdog to Parkway Central. The other was at Kansas State…and they won by 10. Oklahoma State is a better team than Kansas State. Oklahoma State is also firing on all cylinders right now.
Pick: Oklahoma State (+10)
Texas A & M at LSU (-4.5)
Producer Joe: Once again for Missouri's sake they need a Texas A&M win. Obviously if Missouri beats Ole Miss they will drop out of the BCS Top 25. Then once again next weekend Missouri would have a chance to defeat a BCS Top 25 team (it will happen regardless because A&M isn't dropping out of the Top 25 with a loss, but they will be ranked somewhere between 10-12 with a win). The offense is too much for LSU and for this week only I don't worry about A&M defensively because of playing LSU. Plus, it's not a night game in Death Valley and that benefits the Aggies.
Pick: Texas A & M (+4.5)
Denny: Pick: LSU (-4.5)
Tim: Outside of my brilliant 50-26 record against the spread this year, I wrote on September 27th, in advance of the Georgia-LSU game, that I had a sense that neither team was particularly good. LSU was then 6th. Georgia was then 9th. LSU is now 22nd in the BCS. Georgia is not ranked. Just grab my hand and let me lead you through the darkness. This bitch is in a zone.
Pick: Texas A & M (+4.5)
Bears at Rams (-2)
Producer Joe: The Rams have the second toughest remaining schedule in the NFL over the final 6 games of the season. They also don't get to play against the AFC South any more this season. Don't care that the Bears have the 31st ranked rush defense in the league because some how they are going to open up a 14 point lead in this game and the Rams aren't going to be able to run the ball as much as they would like. But nothing surprises me with this team. When it's all said and done this week we are once again going to be questioning the OC about his play calling and wondering where the hell Tavon Austin fits into things. It has just been that kind of year.
Pick: Bears (+2)
Denny: Pick: Rams (-2)
Tim: Maybe it’s not as simple as I think it is, but it seems to me that the Rams have big problems with backs like Matt Forte. If it’s a pounding back, they can keep him in check. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I’m right. Jim Thomas of the Post-Dispatch agreed with my theory earlier this week, saying the reason for that may be the lack of quality tackling ability on the edges…where guys like Forte (and Chris Johnson) go to play. I just don’t see the Rams being able to stop the combination of Forte, Marshall, and Jeffery. The Bears are terrible against the run, so Zac Stacy may be able to go off. I see a high scoring game, but I see the Bears putting up more points.
Pick: Bears (+2)
Cowboys at Giants (-2.5)
Producer Joe: Here come the Giants. I was on it a month ago and I will continue to ride them. Eli has a chance to get healthy against the worst pass defense in the league and the Cowboys spend the day trying to catch up.
Pick: Giants (-2.5)
Denny: Pick: Giants (-2.5)
Tim: Pick: Cowboys (+2.5)
Broncos (-2.5) at Patriots
Producer Joe: This one is incredibly hard for me because I don't think the Pats lose 2 games in a row but they are coming off a Monday Night game and are about to face the best passing offense in the league while they have struggled to score points at times this season. I just worry about Peyton playing in New England where he has struggled in the past. Plus, this is a sandwich game for the Chiefs/Broncos. New England probably needs this game more than the Broncos at this point because if they pick up a 4th loss at this point I don't see them getting a top 2 spot in the AFC playoffs this season although their remaining games after this one don't scare me. Coin flip.
Pick: Patriots (+2.5)
Denny: Pick: Broncos (-2.5)
Tim: Pick: Patriots (+2.5)
Locks of The Week
Producer Joe: Vanderbilt at Tennessee (-3): Anchor Down. Pick: Vanderbilt (+3)
Denny: 49ers (-5.5) at Redskins: Pick: 49ers (-5.5)
Tim: We’ve got a lot of work to do here. I’m on vacation, but this is the most profitable work I’ll do all week. Ladies and gentlemen, we have some FIVE STAR SWEETHEART TEASER PLAYS OF THE YEAR to give you. Just remember this on Thanksgiving. Put the following together in whatever four-team arrangement you’d like. 11 games. Remember, in a four-team sweetheart teaser, all four games have to cover, but you get to move the spread 12 points either way. So, pick your favorites of the below carefully…or don’t. They’ll all be lovely. It will be a shipyard:
-Lions/Buccaneers (Over: 37)
-Jaguars/Texans (Over 31.5)
-Rams/Bears (Over 33)
-Cardinals/Colts (Under 57)
-49ers/Redskins (Over 35)
-Ohio State (-23)
-Texas A & M (+17)
-Oklahoma State (+21.5)
What is my favorite play of the weekend? My lock?
Well, it plays into two long-term value plays for you.
First bonus play? Missouri is (+6000) to win the BCS National Championship.
Now, many of you would say, “There’s no way Missouri is winning the National Championship.” I would almost agree with those people. The thing is…there is a way. And while I’d allocate about 10% to the probability of the Tigers winning their next three games (and that may be high by some standards), if they do indeed do it, at that point, it’s really on. And, if they get there, wouldn’t you like to have a payoff of $6,000 on a $100 bet…or $1,500 on a $25 bet? It’s not all about likelihood. It’s also about value. For 60:1, it’s a damn good value.
And, then the next value bonus play is also right here in Missouri. It’s the Chiefs. I was impressed by Kansas City last week in Denver. I thought they were complete frauds. Yeah…the Broncos still covered, but the Chiefs made them work for it. Looking at the schedules, I think it’s better than 50% that the Chiefs have home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, and if they have that…look out. It’s like if the Seahawks get home field advantage. The difference here is that the Seahawks are 7:2 to win the Super Bowl. In other words, if you bet $100, you win $350. Blah. Not worth it. Bad value. The Chiefs? They’re 20:1. Put $100 on the Chiefs…and they win the Super Bowl…and you’ve got $2,000. Well worth it considering the substantial chance of the Chiefs owning the best record in the AFC at the end of Week 17. Hell, if I had to bet, they’ll have a two-game advantage on the Broncos at the end of Thanksgiving weekend.
So, with that said, as much as I’m annoyed by the odd obsession of some in Kansas City with St. Louis, this is business:
Chargers at Chiefs (-4.5): Pick: Chiefs (-4.5)
And there it all is.
A plethora of knowledge and plays for you.
Do with them what you want.
If you like money, you’ll like me this weekend.
And, if you like $25 gift certificates to Friendly’s, you’ll make your picks below.
Log-in and pick the six games we picked. Then, using scoresandodds.com, pick a separate game as your Lock of The Week. In other words, no duplicates. You can’t also pick, for example, the Rams as your Lock. It has to be a new game. And, as a tiebreaker, pick the total points of Missouri-Ole Miss. Whoever does the best wins a $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill (3503 Roger Place).