Week Fourteen of The Friendly’s Football Picks of The Week

Quick turnaround this week with Thanksgiving, so we’ll all have to attempt to ball as hard as #s did last week in going 6-1 to win the $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill.

Pretty impressive on the part of #s, as there were some games---such as the Rams beating the Bears and LSU beating Texas A & M and the coin flip game with the Broncos and Patriots---going 6-1 was strong. Producer Joe, Denny From Friendly’s, and I all went 4-3. However, those fine gentlemen won their Locks, while I went all square and fell for the 4.5 point trap that was the Chiefs over the Chargers. However, in the 11 games I recommended for Sweetheart Teasers, I went 8-3. Even though that’s a nice number, for a Sweetheart Teaser, I’d like to see that go much higher…to either 10-1 or 11-0. That’s realistic. The one game that shocked me most last week was Texas A & M getting pwnd by LSU. The Aggies scoring just 10 points befuddled me. But, overall, the season record is still at 54-29 for 65% against the spread. Here’s a look at the standings:

Tim: 54-29 (8-5 Locks of The Week)

Denny: 44-39 (7-6 Locks of The Week)

Producer Joe: 41-42 (5-8 Locks of The Week)

Let’s try and get you paid, yo.

Texas A & M at Missouri (-4.5)

Producer Joe:
There are a lot of reasons to like Missouri this week and it only starts with their 9-1-1 record ATS.  Offensively they should be able to hang at least 40 on A&M and although Manziel will be able to get his over the course of 60 minutes, they aren't going to be able to score at will in Columbia.  Conversely, I think Mizzou will be able to control this game and run the ball to keep the clock moving without having to pass the ball every down.  Missouri will be playing in Atlanta for an SEC Championship game.  Crazy.  But true. Pick: Missouri (-4.5)

Denny: Pick: Missouri (-4.5)

This is what it’s all about, Jackie Papers. I feel like I’m in some kind of dream sequence that this is all happening. When I see Missouri listed by Bovada.LV as one of the six teams still on the board to win the National Championship, I wonder if I’m in the desert…enjoying some peyote. You’d hate to see Missouri Missouri this opportunity. Yes, I’m using Missouri as a verb. As I mentioned above, the biggest surprise of last weekend was Texas A & M scoring just 10 points. The fact that the Aggies’ defense gave up 34 points to LSU was actually a minor upset…in that it wasn’t more. On the other side of it, they couldn’t stop the run and, therefore, couldn’t get of the field. That’s not surprising. I’m anxious to see how they handle Missouri’s Pick Your Poison Offense. But, the Texas A & M offense looked dreadful last week. It was shocking. As someone with A & M action, I watched every snap. Now, because LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis did this to JFF last year, maybe it’s just LSU’s scheme that made Manziel look…well…average. However, I wonder how much it was the somewhat cold and rainy conditions that played a role in it. Manziel was just off. And his receivers had plenty of drops as well, and that’s important to note. It’s important…because I can tell you it wasn’t simply a case of A & M getting shut down. They played a role in their sloppy game as well. Are they just not locked in? Do they not want it as bad anymore…now that there isn’t really any big goal out there for them? I’m not sure…but I do believe it’s worthy of addressing when trying to handicap this game. Here’s what I do know: Faurot Field is going to in a mode that anyone reading this who can’t remember 1960 has never seen before. This is a damn good football team, and Saturday night, with Musberger and Herbstreit on the call for the country, they should display that en route to Atlanta.
Pick: Missouri (-4.5)

Alabama (-10.5) at Auburn

Producer Joe:
I realize there are quite a few talking about the chances of Auburn heading into a mammoth Iron Bowl but I'll be honest, I don't buy it.  I'll take Nick Saban's defense against Gus Malzahn's offense (especially without Cam Newton) every day of the week.  I also realize this game isn't taking place after a bye week, but if you don't think Bama was game planning last week prior to playing Chattanooga for this game you are crazy.  I could see it being close entering the 4th quarter, but Bama pulls away and they cover the number fairly easily. Pick: Alabama (-10.5)

Denny: Pick: Alabama (-10.5)

I think @ProdJoe is passive aggressiving me. Why? Well, he says “there are quite a few talking about the chances of Auburn.” I haven’t heard or seen “quite a few” thinking Auburn is going to win this game. Hell, they’re a double digit home underdog as the #4 team in the country. I, however, have been saying for a few weeks that I think this is going to be a close football game. I’m not sold Alabama is in this dominant world unto itself this year, especially in a road game in this rivalry. Neutral site game? I ship Alabama. But, in Auburn? I’m not sure. The 10.5 points is why I’ll take War Damn Eagle, but personally, even if it’s a tougher matchup, I am fantasizing about seeing Missouri on the field against Alabama for the SEC Championship. (I know I’ve said it ad nauseam…but I can’t believe I’m seriously typing that sentence). Pick: Auburn (+10.5)

Ohio State (-14.5) at Michigan

Producer Joe:
I still don't think Ohio State would be undefeated if they played in a more competitive conference and I also don't think they lose this week.  But I can see it being a close game. While Ohio State is holding out hope for a National Championship game appearance they will slip up a little this weekend and this game is closer than it should be.  I will take the 2+ TD's and the home dog. Pick: Michigan (+14.5)

Denny: Pick: Ohio State (-14.5)

I don’t know if I’m thinking with my head or my heart here, but I sincerely believe Ohio State is going to lose at least once over the next two weekends. If they had Michigan at home…and if they had anyone else in the Big Ten Championship Game outside of Michigan State…I’d feel differently. But, I think they’ve got a battle on their hands this weekend, and I think next weekend, it’s a coin flip. Michigan State is playing some of the most dominating football of any team in a power conference over the last month. They’ve outscored their opponents 142-43 over that time. Maybe next weekend won’t even matter. Pick: Michigan (+14.5)

Rams at 49ers (-9.5)

Producer Joe: Short week for the Niners and they have to travel back across the country to play the game after being in DC for the Monday Night game.  Plus this is way too many points to be laying right now.  I have actually enjoyed watching the Rams play their last two games and I think that continues this weekend in the Bay.  I will also enjoy the spin game from the Bradford lovers after Clemens gives his team a change to win against another playoff hopeful.  Can't believe I am saying the things I am saying, but things seem to be working for the Rammies right now. Pick: Rams (+9.5)

Denny: Pick: Rams (+9.5)

Since the Rams have last played the 49ers in The Thursday Night Debacle, they’ve discovered Zac Stacy. In every one of those games, they’ve either won or been in position to win down to the last play with the exception of one game: Carolina. Their opponents (the Jaguars, Texans, Seahawks, Titans, Colts, and Bears) have all had run defenses in the bottom half of the league. The one team that beat them soundly was the Panthers. They have the third best run defense. Now, the 49ers are only 11th. But, Zac Stacy had to leave Sunday’s win early. This spread screams “Rams.” So, I’ve got to go the other way. Pick: 49ers (-9.5)

Broncos (-3.5) at Chiefs

Producer Joe:
This will complete the Chiefs narrative for the 2013 season.  They won't have a shot at HFA after this weekend and then they will have to play a team that can throw the ball in the postseason & the feel good story will be over.  Peyton isn't losing 2 weeks in a row either. Pick: Broncos (-3.5)

Denny: Pick: Broncos (-3.5)

Tim: There’s going to be a lot of public money on the Broncos. It makes no sense, but somehow the Chiefs will cover. You ever see Indiana Jones And The Last Crusade? Late in the film, Harrison Ford had to take a leap of faith into the abyss…even though everything tells you it makes no sense to do it. Pick: Chiefs (+3.5)

Steelers at Ravens (-3)

Producer Joe:
Even though there will be 4 more games for each team after this game is over, this will virtually eliminate one of these teams from the postseason. Pittsburgh has won 3 games in a row and their schedule is a bit more friendly than Baltimore's the rest of the way.  I realize both teams have been kind of boring and offensively challenged for large portions of the season, but I like the way the Steelers are playing right now. I'll take the points and think the Steelers probably win outright. Pick: Steelers (+3)

Denny: Pick: Ravens (-3)

Good chance we’ll be pushing this one. Pick: Steelers (+3)

Locks of The Week

Producer Joe:
Baylor (-13) at TCU: Is this where I am meant to layout a bunch of teams that should be included in a sweetheart teaser? If so, make sure Baylor is included in each and every one.  They lay a beating on TCU this weekend. Pick: Baylor (-13)

Denny: Patriots (-7.5) at Texans: Pick: Patriots (-4.5)

I told you @ProdJoe was sharpshooting me with the passive aggressive shit. I spotted it before even getting to his Lock of The Week. I’d be pissy if I were 13 games off of someone’s pace as well. Let me ship you some Thanksgiving Sweetheart Teaser Action. Here’s The Thanksgiving Weekend Ten:

-Packers/Lions Under (61.5)

-Raiders/Cowboys Under (58.5)

-Ball State (-22.5)

-LSU (-12.5)

-Michigan (+26.5)

-Vanderbilt (-2)

-Missouri/Texas A & M Over (54.5)

-Auburn (+22.5)

-Florida State (-15)

-Wisconsin (-12)

And of all of those, what’s my favorite?

Florida State (-27) at Florida: It finna be ugly in Gainesville. Pick: Florida State (-27)

Now’s your chance to participate in the fun and games. Log-in and make your picks of the six games we just selected and pick a new game from the latest spreads on scoresandodds.com as your Lock of The Week. Use the total points of Missouri-Texas A & M as your tiebreaker. Whoever does the best will receive a $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill (3503 Roger Place).

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