posted on November 02, 2012 06:49
Friendly’s Presents Week 10 of The Football Picks of The Week
What a disastrous week for me in this section on a potpourri of levels.
Let me get the nice stuff out of the way:
Congratulations to Tim Goede. He was the only contestant to go 6-1 in Week 9, and for his outstanding performance, he wins a $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill.
Tim, well done.
You’re a good Tim.
I’m a shitty, awful, dwarf-like Tim.
Let’s get on with some self-mutilation:
First off, my momentum came to a screeching halt by going 2-5. I popped off all week how much I liked Kentucky against Missouri…all while never seeing Kentucky play…but just believing that Missouri with Corbin Berkstresser couldn’t cover a two touchdown spread.
Second, clownfuck Producer Joe pwns everyone’s holes and goes 6-1 taking the lead back from me.
And third, I realize somehow I fucked up the math on the standings, and clownfuck Producer Joe deserved one less loss than he had…and Denny, a paying sponsor, deserved one more loss.
Somewhere between Week 7 and Week 8 I screwed up the math. Got my number right. Messed up @ProdJoe and Denny. Perfect.
The truth is this column is one of the most grueling for me each week. I like to sit down and just start writing. This shit flows out of me like I’m Rabbit in 8 Mile.
But, when it comes to this column, I have to do math, go through every participants’ picks, and then put the whole column together. I’m well aware that it sounds like I’m bitching up a storm over nothing…and I would suggest you’re right. But, when I go through all of these picks, I tend to glaze over and screw up…and we see the evidence with me screwing up the standings…to my disadvantage no less.
What a mess.
Producer Joe: 33-28 (5-4 Locks of The Week)/6-1 Last Week (1-0 Lock of The Week)
Tim: 31-30 (6-3 Locks of The Week)/ 2-5 Last Week (1-0 Lock of The Week)
Denny: 26-35 (6-3 Locks of The Week)/ 3-4 Last Week (1-0 Lock of The Week)
Now, after losing the lead in the standings, I have to dig deep and ratchet it up for you, the great Americans who count on me for your wagering advice.
I’m pwning Locks of The Week, but 31-30 isn’t going to cut it.
I will do my damndest to deliver, and I will promise you one thing: unlike clownfuck Producer Joe who is now picking games just to go against me so as to pick up points in the standings, I will give you my honest opinion. I’m so damn angry right now I feel like counting @ProdJoe’s play on Missouri as a loss…since he just picked it because he knew I loved Kentucky and wanted to start picking up ground in the standings.
We have three months left of this shit.
Settle down, Dorothy.
Look at me.
I’m a mess.
This rage is unbecoming of a short bald gentleman.
I’m disappointed in myself.
I must restore order.
It begins now.
Missouri at Florida (-17)
Producer Joe: You know coming off their first SEC win the ball is rolling in the right direction for the Tigers. There is no stopping them now. Hell, they are even getting their starting quarterback James Franklin back for a key trip to the Swamp....OK, enough of that. But at the beginning of this week I was looking at a 24-7 loss for the Tigers. But that would result in a push. The more I look at it I think the Tigers can keep it close. Florida doesn't have the offensive ability to blow teams out of the water at home or on the road. So I will take the Tigers but I don't have any faith in them winning outright.
Pick: Missouri (+17)
Denny: Florida (-17)
Tim: Missouri’s such a different team with James Franklin. They’re still not a good team, but they’re not as dreadful as they are with Berkstresser back there. I’m hoping---and man do I hate to do business on hope---that the Missouri offense will now focus on running the football and not give up after a couple of carries. They’ve seen it can work…even against non-Kentucky teams. I’m also thinking that the 11 a.m. start works to Missouri’s advantage in the sense that it won’t be a 2:30 p.m. or 6:00 or 7:00 p.m. atmosphere at The Swamp. Florida may be taking this one for granted, and the Tigers could put up 14 to 17 points. If they do that, I think Missouri’s defense is good enough to keep it within the number.
Pick: Missouri (+17)
Alabama (-9.5) at LSU
Producer Joe: I believe that Alabama is the best team in the country. In fact I would love to hear an argument from someone that doesn't agree with that assessment. I am talking the best team in the country. Not that they have beaten better teams than anyone else. The schedule argument doesn't carry any weight with me. I just know that no matter who Alabama plays right now on a neutral field they would be favored and I think they would be favored on the road against just about every single team in the country. The only team they may not be favored against is Oregon and even there I could see them being a point or a point and a half favorite. LSU won't be able to throw the ball effectively enough to make the run a threat against the Bama defense. This will not be a repeat of last November.
Pick: Alabama (-9.5)
Denny: Alabama (-9.5)
Tim: Look at Producer Joe going out on a limb with that first sentence: “I believe Alabama is the best team in the country.” That’s good shit there. You can read Pat Forde or Stewart Mandel all day long, but you won’t find analysis like @ProdJoe’s anywhere else but insideSTL.com.
Pick: LSU (+9.5)
Oregon (-8) at USC
Producer Joe: It won't be close. USC won't be able to score enough in this track meet to be within a shout in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Oregon (-8)
Denny: Oregon (-8)
Tim: Oregon (-8)
Steelers at Giants (-3.5)
Producer Joe: Low number is surprising to me. I think right now if the Giants and the Falcons were to be matched up on a neutral field that the Giants would be 3 point or more favorites. I don't have faith in the Steeler offense or defense to match-up with the Giants right now. Almost too easy.
Pick: Giants (-3.5)
Denny: Giants (-3.5)
Tim: Giants (-3.5)
Cowboys at Falcons (-4)
Producer Joe: Here is the crazy thing about the 7-0 Falcons....they have beaten one team this season that is above .500 (Broncos in Atlanta on a Monday Night when Peyton kept throwing interceptions). That's it. They've won close games at home against the Panthers and Raiders, and last week they blew the doors off of the Eagles. Add in a wins over the Redskins, Chargers, and Chiefs and that is how they have gotten to 7-0. They aren't going to run the table this season and I think this is the week that they may lose. Not because I think the Cowboys are a great team, but because the match-up just feels right.
Pick: Cowboys (+4)
Denny: Falcons (-4)
Tim: Man, something is shifty with this one. I would’ve thought the Falcons would be about 7 to 8 point favorites. When that happens, you know what to do. Use the force. Go against logic. The bookies win big on this one.
Pick: Cowboys (+4)
Broncos (-4) at Bengals
Producer Joe: Not going to be close. The Broncos are moving in the right direction in a terrible division. The Bengals offense has been figured out because once you shut down AJ Green there isn't much else for Andy Dalton to attack with. Pick:
Denny: Broncos (-4)
Tim: This one strikes me as odd as well. Really odd. Use the force.
Pick: Bengals (+4)
Locks of The Week
Producer Joe: TCU at West Virginia (-6.5): Mountaineers get back on the scoring track this week.
Pick: West Virginia (-6.5)
Denny: Bills at Texans (-10): Pick: Texans (-10)
Tim: Oklahoma State at Kansas State (-8.5): Oklahoma State is not good. Kansas State could damn well be the best team in the country. Furthermore, you have the knowledge that they have to win in impressive fashion…not just win. This is the time of year to get paid on these borderline BCS Championship contender teams. Oregon last week. K-State this week.
Pick: Kansas State (-8.5)
Now’s your chance to participate. Log-in to pick the six games we all picked, and then select your own Lock of The Week from the most recent spreads on scoresandodds.com. As a tiebreaker, pick the total points for Missouri-Florida. Whoever does the best wins a $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill.