posted on November 09, 2012 00:00
Friendly’s Presents Week 11 of The Football Picks of The Week
Here’s your way to riches and bitches: bet with me on college…bet the opposite of me on the NFL.
I went 4-0 in college last week. I went 0-3 in the NFL the previous week. I was 0-3 in the NFL the week before that.
I’m pwning my college locks of the week…but when it comes to picking NFL games, I get plowed.
dwarnecke did some plowing of his own in winning six of the seven possible games and taking down the total point tiebreaker to win Week 10 of the Friendly’s Picks of The Week…and for that, he gets a $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill.
It’s really saying something when I go 0-3 in the NFL on a weekend in which Las Vegas sports books were saying it was one of their worst weekends ever. People were hitting parlays left and right…because the big favorites covered over and over and over again. Houston pwning Buffalo. The Packers barely covering against the Cardinals. The Lions murdering the Jaguars. The Bears crushing the Titans. The Broncos over the Bengals. The Falcons with a meaningless field goal to cover at the end of the game against the Cowboys. All hell broke loose in Las Vegas for the sports books. But, here I am…winless.
Nonetheless, because of my success in college at 4-0, there wasn’t a lot of movement in the standings. @ProdJoe went 3-4, so I cut his lead to a game over me by going 4-3. Denny also went 4-3. Both Denny and I improved to 7-3 on the year with our Locks of The Week. Producer Joe continues to dick around in that department by dropping his Lock last week and sitting at 5-5 on the year:
Producer Joe: 36-32 (5-5 Locks of The Week)/ Last Week: 3-4 (0-1 Lock of The Week)
Tim: 35-33 (7-3 Locks of The Week)/ Last Week: 4-3 (1-0 Lock of The Week)
Denny: 30-38 (7-3 Locks of The Week)/ Last Week 4-3 (1-0 Lock of The Week)
Time for some Saturday fun…and some Sunday nightmares:
Missouri at Tennessee (-3)
Producer Joe: Missouri (+3)
Denny: Missouri (+3)
Tim: Producer Joe is vacationing this weekend, so that means we miss out on his reasoning for picks. You’ll see two good operations when the Missouri defense is up against the Tennessee offense. And you’ll see two horrendous operations when the Missouri offense is up against the Tennessee defense. I’ll go with a DGB coming-out party…two months after I thought it would happen.
Pick: Missouri (+3)
Kansas State (-7) at TCU
Producer Joe: TCU (+7)
Denny: K-State (-7)
Tim: As Pat Forde said on TheITDRoll.com Morning After, it’s easier to get information out of North Korea than it is out of Bill Snyder in Manhattan, Kansas. As of writing this brilliant piece, I have no idea if Collin Klein is going to play. If he plays, I’d take Kansas State…but not with a great deal of certainty. If he doesn’t play, I’d take TCU…and with a fair amount of certainty. Therefore, using the mathematical formulas I have at my disposal, I have decided probability goes with TCU.
Pick: TCU (+7)
Texas A & M at Alabama (-13.5)
Producer Joe: Alabama (-13.5)
Denny: Alabama (-13.5)
Tim: I’ve gone back and forth on this one. There’s the school of thought that Roll Damn Tide is beat up after their trip to Baton Rouge. And, there’s the school of thought that they will have a letdown. On the other side, you have the A & M offense…and Alabama hasn’t dealt with anything like Johnny Football as of yet, and I say that with all due respect to Corbin Berkstresser. The variable I wonder about, however, is what A & M’s defense will do against Alabama’s offense, which doesn’t get nearly the attention as the defense…but is still pretty damn good. Also, Texas A & M hasn’t exactly pwnd great teams over the last few weeks to get where they are. Mississippi State has been exposed. Auburn is horrid. And, A & M barely won in Oxford by three…and they got an even bigger scare at Louisiana Tech…winning 59-57. This is not an easy play either way. I may regret it, but I’ll play it safe.
Pick: Alabama (-13.5)
Rams at 49ers (-11)
Producer Joe: 49ers (-11)
Denny: 49ers (-11)
Tim: Beware. The. Rammies. You know what Jeff Fisher’s record is coming off of bye weeks? Neither do I. But I bet it’s pretty damn good. Actually, in what is the upset of the week, I kind of looked this up. Fun fact for know and tell: When the Rams lost their first (and one of only three games in 1999), they lost to a Titans’ team coming off of a bye week. As a matter of fact, Fisher was 4-0 from 2006 through 2009 in Tennessee coming off a bye week. Of course, the 49ers are coming off of a bye week as well. But, I’d like to think Danny Amendola’s return combined with the bye week will allow the Rams to keep this one closer than the number. Of course, you know my recent track record with the NFL.
Pick: Rams (+11)
Cowboys (-1.5) at Eagles
Producer Joe: Cowboys (-1.5)
Denny: Cowboys (-1.5)
Tim: Am I missing something with the Cowboys? At this point, I think they’re a favorite because of brand name. That’s what we call a leak in one’s game in the poker world. Expose all leaks. Clog holes. Pwn holes.
Pick: Eagles (+1.5)
Texans at Bears (-1)
Producer Joe: Bears (-1)
Denny: Texans (+1)
Tim: Bears (-1)
Locks of The Week
Producer Joe: Georgia (-15.5) at Auburn: Pick: Georgia (-15.5)
Denny: Bills at Patriots (-11): Pick: Patriots (-11)
Tim: Oregon (-27) at California: The only fly in this currently perfect business model’s ointment is that Cal somehow beat the somehow good UCLA Bruins. Other than that, they’re horrible. And, Oregon is masterful. If you haven’t seen them play yet, it’s a thing of beauty offensively. It’s a 2000 Rams-like operation defensively, however. Even with that out there, Chip Kelly needs to keep on winning and winning big. This is the time of year to get wealthy wagering. Sure things don’t come around often…except when a couple of teams are running up the score in order to get into the BCS Championship Game. Y’all bitches ought to know by now.
Pick: Oregon (-27)
Now’s you’re chance to submit your picks for this weekend. Pick the six games we selected, and also put a Lock of The Week in by using the most recent spreads from www.scoresandodds.com. As a tiebreaker, give the total points for the Missouri-Tennessee game. Since I think it could be/should be high, I thought that’d be better than the Rams-49ers. But, what the hell do I know? Just submit picks…and whoever does the best wins a $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill.