posted on January 11, 2013 07:18
Friendly’s Presents Week 20 of The Football Picks of The Week
Sometimes a man just has to tip his cap.
Producer Joe was up against the wall. Facing elimination. With just 12 games left to pick and trailing me by five games plus the Lock of The Week tiebreaker, he had no room for error.
He had to go undefeated last weekend.
And he did.
He picked every favorite. And every favorite won…with really little drama.
You had five games last weekend, and I think the country was intrigued by four of them. All five sucked. And, all five had the favorites win big. That tends to make me think that Las Vegas got killed, since the public tends to go with the favorites.
Interestingly enough, we only had one person pick all the games right---outside of Producer Joe---and that was John Daniels. Hell, he almost got the total points of the Notre Dame-Alabama game right by guessing 49 as his tiebreaker. The final tally was 56. Impressive performance, sir. You win the $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill.
Meanwhile, Producer Joe, Denny From Friendly’s, and I have a $250 per person side bet on who wins our season. If I could’ve just gone 3-2, I would’ve still had a death lock on this thing…and the $500 would be mine.
Now, as they say in the poker world, I’ve got a sweat.
Here are the standings with seven games left to pick:
Tim: 64-60 (12-6 Locks of The Week)
Producer Joe: 62-62 (9-9 Locks of The Week)
Denny: 57-65 (12-6 Locks of The Week)
Producer Joe’s 5-0 cut my lead down. I’ll blame my 2-3 on emotion. I was pulling for the Colts, Redskins, and Notre Dame. So, I picked the Colts, Redskins, and Notre Dame. If I were to take the emotion out of it, the only one that I would’ve felt good about picking would’ve been the Redskins, and I think it’s fair to say that the Redskins were well on their way before RGIII’s injury. And, when I saw Bruce Arians was going to miss the game with an illness, I was going to go online and switch my pick, but that wouldn’t have been fair, so I stuck with the Colts. So it goes. I went against my “never do business with emotion.”
No emotion this weekend.
As Nino Brown said in New Jack City, “It’s business. It’s never personal.”
As #FreeDotem would say, “Think about it.”
Ravens at Broncos (-10)
Producer Joe: Ravens (+10)
Denny: Broncos (-10)
Tim: Fun Facts For Know And Tell: Since 2002, when two teams are meeting for the second time (or even the third) that season in the playoffs, the team that lost the previous matchup is 44-26-1 (.629) ATS. That comes from ToddsTake.com, the website of OutkickTheCoverage.com’s Todd Fuhrman, a former oddsmaker at Caesars Palace. This weekend, you have three teams playing a rematch, and the team that lost is getting points (a substantial amount of points in both AFC games). I think this is a likely “Broncos win…but don’t cover” scenario.
Pick: Ravens (+10)
Packers at 49ers (-3)
Producer Joe: Packers (+3)
Denny: 49ers (-3)
Tim: This is difficult, because so much of what would be my gameday wagering decision would be based on the health of Justin Smith. Aldon Smith hasn’t been the same ever since his Missouri cohort got hurt. Justin Smith has been limited at practice all week, but they keep saying he’s going to play. However, even if he plays, how effective will he be? The Packers are banged up as well. Using the trend theory from above, it would work in the Packers’ favor. But, on this one, I’m going to go with the 49ers on the belief that Green Bay’s defense will struggle with Colin Kaepernick and the rest of the 49ers’ offense…and the 49ers will get to Aaron Rodgers just enough.
Pick: 49ers (-3)
Seahawks at Falcons (-2.5)
Producer Joe: Falcons (-2.5)
Denny: Falcons (-2.5)
Tim: Man, I thought I’d be all alone with the Falcons on this one. I teased Notre Dame up to +16.5 with the Falcons +3.5 earlier this week. That didn’t quite work out. The damn emotion thing again. I would think the public is all over the Seahawks this weekend. That’s why I thought Producer Joe and Denny would be all over the Seahawks this weekend. But, even though they don’t have the glamour/hype of the other NFC teams left, I think the Falcons will be hosting the NFC Championship Game next Sunday.
Pick: Falcons (-2.5)
Texans at Patriots (-9.5)
Producer Joe: Texans (+9.5)
Denny: Patriots (-9.5)
Tim: I don’t want to see the Texans win. But, I wouldn’t rule out a Texans’ win. Their win against the Bengals was quite boring, and they fell apart down the stretch. But, this is a dangerous football team, and them getting 9.5 points is even more dangerous. Plus, using our little guide from the ToddsTake.com, the Texans have the history on their side…as they Patriots beat the hell out of them the last time they met.
Pick: Texans (+9.5)
Now’s your chance to pick this weekend’s games and compete for the $25 gift certificate to Friendly’s Sports Bar And Grill. Just log-in and pick the four games…and as a tiebreaker, give the total points for the Packers and 49ers.