Can They Do It Again?

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to defend their World Series Championship, it isn’t out of bounds to start wondering if they can repeat as champs in 2012. But if history is any indication, repeating is damn near impossible these days—Major League Baseball has not seen back-to-back World Champions in over a decade. So are the Cards’ backs already against the wall before they even take the field?

Anything can happen once a team makes it to the postseason; just ask the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals. But the drama and theatrics that surrounded that team from late August through late October only happen once in a lifetime. The safer bet by far is to put together a team that can comfortably make the playoffs, be effective in a short series as well as a long one, and have the tools necessary to go the distance. Last year the Cards were able to squeak into the Wild Card on the very last day of the season. In 2012, their only focus should be on winning the NL Central Division title, because it will probably be their only way into postseason play.

The NL East has four teams expected to at least make things interesting in 2012. The only team with no legitimate shot at a playoff spot is the New York Mets. The Philadelphia Phillies are still the champions of the East, and until someone unseats them should be considered the favorite. The Atlanta Braves will probably have some of the same problems they had last year—namely scoring enough runs to win—but they should still contend for most of the season. But the two teams with the biggest makeovers this offseason, the Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals, will likely be in the race until the very end. Does either team have enough to overtake the Phillies? Who knows? But they have enough to put together a solid record and make things tough for any team west of Philly to get a shot at the Wild Card.

So the Cardinals’ best and maybe only shot at the 2012 playoffs is to win the Central. This time last year, they looked like a team that would run with the revamped Milwaukee Brewers, the defending division champion Cincinnati Reds, and the dark horse Chicago Cubs. But the Cubs never could get it together enough to be a legit threat, and the Pittsburgh Pirates even stole the dark horse moniker for part of the year. The Reds hung around for a while and certainly made things interesting, but injuries and lack of depth took its toll and they faded. The Brewers, of course, turned out to be even better than advertised. And the Cards, after lowering expectations following the loss of Adam Wainwright before the season even began, found the right gear at the right time and made their unprecedented run.

For 2012, the Cincinnati Reds figure to give the Cardinals a run for their money atop the Central. Walt Jocketty made some bold moves this offseason, and the Reds may be poised for a “one last shot” year in which they go all in for a chance at postseason success before some of their bigger names price themselves out of the Redlegs’ budget. The Brewers lost both Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun (the latter for the first 50 games of the year, anyway) and consequently have a shade of the offense they once knew. Their pitching may carry them, but only so far. The Cubs underwent some major changes too, and figure to be a pretty young team in 2012. They probably won’t win many games, but their vision is currently big picture and it won’t be long before they enjoy some sustained success if their prospects and younger Major League players live up to their potential. The Pirates could also give teams fits this year, but it’s really tough to see them as a contender yet. They can’t be ignored, but can they be taken seriously?

For their part, the Cards do have some history on their side. No other team in the last 10 seasons has appeared in three World Series. And in that same span of time, the Cardinals are the only NL team with two World Series Championships. So the pedigree has only been strengthened for this storied franchise. But the team has seen a lot of turnover this offseason. Icons have departed; in some cases they’ve been replaced with capable talent, and in others they’ve been replaced with unknown quantities. On paper, the Cardinals certainly appear to have the talent to win the Central with little problem. But health will be a major factor on this year’s team. So will leadership. And both are vital to building a championship-caliber team.

The Cardinals have a lot of questions to answer heading into the 2012 campaign but they are loaded with talent and should have what it takes to earn a second straight trip to the playoffs. The NL Central has its bright spots yet appears to be weaker than it was last year. Of course, baseball isn’t all about appearances; it’s about results. And the collection of those results starts in just a few short weeks—as does the Cards’ defense of their title.

Chris Reed is a freelance writer who also appears on I-70 Baseball Saturdays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.