Fantasy Roost: The Cardinals To Monitor

Valentine’s Day is fast approaching and we all know what that means. That’s right. Spring Training is just around the corner and it’s time to start gearing up for another season of Fantasy Baseball. Whether you’re in a rotisserie, keeper, points-based, mixed or NL-only league, draft boards are likely to be littered with St. Louis Cardinals. Even though the game’s best player and perennial fantasy goldmine has departed for more lavish and “pious” pastures, the Redbirds have a laundry list of potentially notable fantasy contributors. Here is your guide to the Cardinals’ talent pool on draft day.

Key
B – Blue Chip: Top contributor at his position
D – Decliner: Likely to regress from previous year’s stats
I – Injury risk: History of multiple injuries and likelihood of significant time missed
S – Sleeper: Player that could be a breakout contributor and had at a value

Adam Wainwight – SP (B)
Despite missing all of 2011 to Tommy John surgery, the Cardinal ace is a bona fide top fantasy starter and a game changer for any lineup across every type of league. He finished second in Cy Young voting in 2010 and posted a filthy 2.42 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and 213 strikeouts in 230+ innings. His 20 wins and 3.80 strikeout to walk ratio made him fantasy gold across the board. The surgery concerns may drop him down a few spots, but Tommy John is hardly a risk these days – in fact most pitchers come back throwing harder. Expect him to post similar numbers to his 2010 campaign and feel free to draft him early with confidence.

Chris Carpenter – SP (I)
The reigning World Series ace threw over 270 total innings last season, so there will be some questions about his durability, but he still clearly has some gas left in the tank. After starting off slow in 2011 – helped in part by very poor defense up the middle – Carp rebounded significantly in the second half, posting a 2.98 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP, .249 batting average against and a 7-2 record. Assuming his long right arm can handle the workload he could be a very solid fantasy contributor in 2012. The innings and previous injury history will scare off his critics, likely making him available at a bargain basement price or a late-round steal. If he winds up being your third or fourth starter in your rotation you have done very well.

Jaime Garcia – SP
Garcia is a perplexing young pitcher who can be absolutely lights out for impressive stretches, but he has the mound presence of a jittery housecat. With Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa – notoriously impatient with young pitchers – out of the picture he may gain some confidence and consistency this season. Thirteen wins, a 3.56 ERA and over a 3.0 K/BB ratio are very impressive from a second year pitcher, but beware of the 1.32 WHIP and significant decline in the second half. It’s very unlikely that 2012 will be his best season, but there is certainly plenty of realistic potential for improvement. He can be had on the cheap, so buy low and stash him on the bench until he reveals what kind of start he’s off to. If history repeats itself he will at least be a surprise weapon for you in the first half.

Jason Motte – CL
The bearded wonder looks like Bruce Sutter reincarnate and has appeared to develop into a strong fantasy closer. The downside is that the world saw what he could do in the playoffs so he won’t be flying under anyone’s radar. With a full season of 9th inning work he could rack up 35 to 45 saves, and his 2.25 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 3.94 K/BB show that he has the peripherals to make him legit. The only issue is how long of a leash will Mike Matheny give him before going to the next in line. Given that he officially has the job now, he’ll likely be a top ten closer on draft day.

Lance Lynn – RP, SP (S)
If it weren’t for an unfortunate late season injury, Lynn may be in Jason Motte’s position right now. The former starter emerged as a flame throwing reliever, touching 99 on the gun and fanning 40 batters in just 34+ innings. His 3.12 ERA was skewed by two early season starts, but his 1.03 WHIP was impressive, making pundits wonder what he could have done with a full season. If Motte struggles or goes down with injury, Lynn is likely next in line to close, and he’s also a strong candidate to join the rotation should something happen to one of the top five or an emergency starter is needed. He’ll cost next to nothing and his upside is loaded with fantasy potential. Make him a late-round steal.

Matt Holliday – OF (B) (I)
The Cardinals most expensive asset was hamstrung by a litany of bizarre injuries last season, but has been an extremely healthy player in the past. Holliday never failed to amass at least 620 at-bats in any season since becoming a regular position player until last year, so that should ease fantasy GM’s minds a bit. Even with just 124 games played he still managed an impressive .296-22-75 line with 36 doubles and a .912 OPS. The latter was higher than Albert Pujols’. Holliday is a notorious workhorse and fitness nut, so expect him to be in top shape this spring. No longer in the considerable shadow of King Albert, expect Holliday to be the big bat in the Cardinal offense, and don’t be surprised if he snares more than a few MVP votes. Draft him as a top outfielder with confidence.

Lance Berkman – 1B, OF (D)
The comeback player of the year made quite an impact in his first season as a Cardinal and proved that there is still a lot of fight left in the old Puma. His line of .301-31-94 coupled with 90 runs scored and a monster .959 OPS made him one of the most potent bats in the National League and earned him a top ten (7) MVP spot. Expecting him to repeat those numbers will likely be asking a lot seeing as he turns 36 in a couple days, but 2010 was his lone disappointing season in a potential HOF career, so don’t be too quick to write him off. He can likely be had in the mid rounds or for a modest price in auction leagues, making him less than a top tier first baseman, but his OF availability helps level out his value. Expect a slight drop off in his numbers, but you could do much worse than Berkman as a number two outfielder or a utility staple.

Carlos Beltran – OF (I)
The Cards’ biggest offseason acquisition is an intriguing fantasy play. Threat of injury will likely scare off several potential suitors, but it’s very unlikely that John Mozeliak would sign someone who will be unable to contribute. Not to mention he passed a rigorous physical to see if his knees could hold up, and he’s coming off a season where he racked up almost 600 at-bats. His line of .300-22-84 (while playing in pitcher friendly parks) speaks for itself, and his .910 OPS was good for a top ten spot in the NL. Hitting in the heart of a potentially loaded lineup makes him a solid number two outfielder that can be had at a reasonable price.

Yadier Molina – C
The defensive magician exploded at the plate last season, putting up career highs in nearly every meaningful category. No longer a light-hitting fantasy albatross, Molina has actually blossomed into a legit asset and will shoot off draft boards much faster than in the past. His line of .305-14-65 gave him a better season than perennial silver slugger Brian McCann, and his .814 OPS is more than most fantasy GMs were able to get out of their catcher spot. The only question is, was 2011 Yadi’s ceiling or at 29 is he poised for an even better campaign? He won’t be one of the elite catchers taken early, but could sneak into the top ten, potentially giving his owners solid numbers at a reasonable price.

David Freese – 3B (S) (I)
The World Series MVP showed the planet what he is capable of in the playoffs, but to expect those insane numbers to translate to a monster regular season is folly. Freese has yet to play anything close to a full season because of a rash of injuries (most notably his jelliod ankles), but last season his aliments were of the freakish variety, lending some hope to him possibly staying healthy in 2012. Last season he managed to hit .297 with ten homers and 55 RBI in just 333 at bats, so he has real value if he can stay on the field. Third base is a thin position right now, so gambling on Freese in the late rounds and spending your big bucks elsewhere isn’t a terrible strategy. Make sure you have a backup plan if you do draft him, but he certainly qualifies as low-risk, high-reward.

Allen Craig – 1B, 2B, OF (I) (S)
Craig is another exciting player who has yet to put together a full major league season. He’s been bitten by the injury bug as well and has been blocked by bigger names on the lineup card, but this kid looks to have 35-homer potential if he gets his ABs. He won’t start the season on time, as he’s recovering from knee surgery, but will likely be hitting in a juicy spot in the lineup once he returns. His line of .315-11-40 (with five steals to boot) in just 200 at bats last season makes him worth a late round pick despite his late arrival, and if he manages to still qualify at 2B he could be one of the biggest fantasy steals of the year. Power, average and some speed potential coupled with his lineup versatility makes him a nifty late-round pick to stash on your bench.