STL Poker Room Plays a Hand, Pt5

[Doug Fieselman]

This is Part 5. We chose to bet $22 into the villain. Below is the summary of the hand and the action to us:

Scenario:


Game: Full Ring NLHE Cash Game (.5/1.00 blinds)
Your image: tight aggressive - you are only playing about 12% of your hands, raising 9% of them. You've been betting aggressively post-flop and you've only shown down good hands so far.
Villain: villain is fairly fishy and random. He's playing 30% of his hands and coming in for a raise about 15% of the time. He folds to cbets 55% of the time. You've seen him limp with total junk and with high pocket pairs/high cards. You've also seen him raise junk and raise pocket pairs/high cards. He is aggressive post-flop.
You've not played a noteworthy hand against villain.
Your Position: In the BB
Villain's position: middle position
Stacks: Villain and you both have full ($100) stacks.

If you think you need more information, I'll make some shit up and edit this post.

Pre-flop action:


You have AcKd
Everyone folds to villain.
Villain limps.
Everyone else folds to you.
You: raised to $4.00
Villain: insta-calls

On the Flop: (Pot: $8.50)


Flop comes: Qc, 9c, Ah
You: Bet $8.50
Villain: Raises an additional $8.50 to $17.00.

You: Call.

On the Turn: (Pot: $42.50)


Board: Qc, 9c, Ah, 2c
You:bet $22.00
Villain: Raises All-in

You: ???

[danxxx1]

I think this is a fold, If I did the math right its $59 to win $141..you're getting like 2 1/2 to 1 on your call, however you have to assume as played that your ace and king are probably no good.
Your odds on hitting a club on the river, (assuming villian has 2 in his hand for the flush) is 14% and even if he doesnt your still only 18% to hit.

You're not getting the right price to make the call, Just fold and save the rest of your stack.
It really depends on your read of the villian, but with no reads I fold.



I think the mistake in this had was the lead on the turn.

[werneae]

agreed, we made ourselves vulnerable to this on the turn. with a play like that, we had to be prepared to fold or go all in.

[danxxx1]

ok
i'm totally changing my mind here on this hand.
My read on villian is he has q-9 and not the flush.
His mini re-raise on the flop just doesnt make sense to me.
IF your on a flush draw you don't want to build the pot, with a raise that you will call. You want to try to push someone out of the pot with your bet and he didnt do that.
I don't think he has a ace in his hand, based on your read on the guy I would assume he is the type to raise with any ace in late position.

So I think he has q-9 suited here.
With that being the case you have any ace, king , two or club giving you 16 outs,. So your about a 32% or so to hit giving you the correct odds to make this a call.

[billiken99]

I disagree with the Q9. If he typically folds to bets and he is willing to put the big cash on the line I think he hit a flush by playing K something (probably a 2) Therefore you have even less outs as picking up a set or 2 pair does not improve your hand. With less than 25% chance of hitting your hand. I probably fold here. I probably suspect a flush draw here and would have checked the turn in hopes he gives you a free card to the river for the nuts. If he only bets half the pot (your bet) I probably call anything else, I fold and save my stack. I was fine the way the hand was played until the 22$ lead bet on the turn. That being said, playing against a loose player like this is tough. I have called because of pot hands on more than one of these occasions expecting to loose and end up winning because the loose player was playing a middle pair with ace kicker or some other donkey hand.

[Solo83]

I'm folding. I think we're beat, and not getting the right price to hit the flush. I don't really care for the way we've played this hand. I'd prefer either re-raising on the flop, or checking the turn.

[j_infamous]

it took a while but you know have all the information you need on where you stand on this particular hand.

[Doug Fieselman]

With a whopping 7 votes, we chose to fold (4 votes to 3). Villain was kind enough to flash his cards: Qh9h, for 2 pair.

Where do we think we went wrong? I've seen some comments that our mistake was betting the turn, and I agree. We have a mediocre hand - a hand we'd prefer to get to the river without creating a big pot. For that reason, I like a check/call line on the turn. By check/calling (might have to check/fold if he makes a huge overbet), we'll get to see 2 cards for the price of one. Betting $22 on the turn probably doesn't give us much fold equity, inflates the pot, and puts us to a difficult decision if we get raised. And if he just calls, we'll have another difficult decision on the river (if a club doesn't fall).

What I learned is that being out of position sucks monkey balls. Oh, and I learned that playing a single hand over two weeks while making decisions by majority vote is not an optimal way to play poker.

[danxxx1]

With a whopping 7 votes, we chose to fold (4 votes to 3). Villain was kind enough to flash his cards: Qh9h, for 2 pair.

Where do we think we went wrong? I've seen some comments that our mistake was betting the turn, and I agree. We have a mediocre hand - a hand we'd prefer to get to the river without creating a big pot. For that reason, I like a check/call line on the turn. By check/calling (might have to check/fold if he makes a huge overbet), we'll get to see 2 cards for the price of one. Betting $22 on the turn probably doesn't give us much fold equity, inflates the pot, and puts us to a difficult decision if we get raised. And if he just calls, we'll have another difficult decision on the river (if a club doesn't fall).

What I learned is that being out of position sucks monkey balls. Oh, and I learned that playing a single hand over two weeks while making decisions by majority vote is not an optimal way to play poker.


WOOT!!!!!!
No if only I was that good at reading peoples hands when I am actually in the pot with them, maybe I would be on to something!